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Can D.C. or Seattle make MLS Cup?

Nov 15, 2012, 6:33 PM EDT

Seattle Sounders v D.C. United Getty Images

D.C. United and the Seattle Sounders find themselves down two goals and three goals, respectively, in their quests to get to MLS Cup on December 1. That’s not good. Not good at all.

Their opponents, the Houston Dynamo and the LA Galaxy, are massive favorites to advance. As MLSSoccer.com’s Simon Borg notes, only two teams — the 2003 San Jose Earthquakes and the 2004 Kansas City Wizards — have ever come back from a two-goal deficit. That’s a 25 percent success rate, which is not encouraging. (But also maybe better than expected?)

The 2011 Sounders are the only team in league history to start the second leg down three goals. They lost 3-2 on aggregate to Real Salt Lake.

So it doesn’t look very good. But if a team is going to make a run, which one will it be?

D.C. United would be the sensible pick, seeing as they have less of a hill to climb. And Ben Olsen squad appeared destined to reach the league’s final game after their insane run of late-season form. That said, a variety of circumstances conspired to stop them. First, injuries, injuries, injuries. They did okay without DeRo — you know, for a team losing its best player and all — but Chris Pontius reaggrevated a groin injury in the first leg. And Andy Najar is out, suspended after throwing the ball at a ref. They will struggle to score without those two.

So, I’m taking Seattle. (Note: I don’t think either underdog will make it to MLS Cup.) The Sounders have a massive home-field advantage and plenty of weapons. The Galaxy look unbeatable, but maybe second-choice centerback Tommy Meyer chokes. Get one goal early, get the crowd (even more involved), and this thing gets interesting.

Don’t forget: Weird things happen when the Galaxy go to Seattle in big matches.

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