Don’t expect Neymar to move in January

With the European transfer window opening next week, the time for cynicism is here. Over the next month-plus, you’re going to be inundated with gossip and speculation, most of which you should scoff at and discard.

While we’ll try to refrain from posting the completely frivolous junk, but when something gets sufficient backing (like here, or here), the rumors will even make their way onto the prestige papers of ProSoccerTalk.

That’s why it brings me some perverse joy to begin our transfer coverage by squashing some rumors. Yesterday, we talked about Daniele de Rossi’s unlikely move to Major League Soccer (anytime soon). Today, we’ll put any PST Neymar speculation to bed before transfer season even start.

On Wendesday, the Santos and Brazil national team star confirmed on Brazilian television that he will not move in the January window. Citing his “family, son, [and] friends,” the 20-year-old said he was too happy at home to entertain a move in the winter window.

The announcement comes after recent speculation Manchester City had intensified their pursuit of South America’s best player. Reports had City director Txiki Begiristain flying to Brazil in an effort to convince Neymar to sign for the Premier League club.

If City is in contention for Neymar, Begiristain is likely competing against his former club, with Barcelona long thought to be the favorite to sign the Brazilian if he decides to leave Santos.

While Neymar’s decision to stay at home surprised few, it does set him up for another precarious Brazilian league season. Since becoming a regular with the Selecao, Neymar’s international commitments have kept him from getting regular time in Brazil’s Campeonato. After playing 31 league games in 2010, Neymar has appeared a combined 38 times in the last two tournaments. In 2012, Neymar made nearly as many appearances in the São Paulo state championship (16) as he did in the national league (17).

By electing to stay in Brazil, Neymar’s set himself up for another year of reduced playing time. South America’s World Cup qualifying campaign will pull Neymar into the national team during the Campeonato’s summer schedule. Neymar will also miss time for Confederations Cup, in which Brazil will participate as World Cup hosts.

Those playing time concerns don’t seem to be weighing on the Santos star. Already dominating his competition to the tune of 43 goals in 47 games in 2012, Neymar’s probably ready to jump to Europe, but if a 20-year-old star making millions at home wants to stick around for a little longer, it’s hard to find too much fault. Were he 22 or 23 and entering the best years of his career, it would be easier to argue he should be in Europe.

But if he waits until after the next World Cup to make the jump (as has often been speculated), Neymar may be no worse off.