What is a worthy attendance for U.S.-Canada in January?

I saw some worry wafting last week out of Houston, where tickets for the Jan. 29 U.S.-Canada contest at BBVA Compass Stadium, kicking off the U.S. national team’s big year, are not exactly checking the box for “hot item.”

Glenn Davis, the veteran broadcaster/ blogger/ reporter out of Houston, said early last week that about 8,000 tickets had been sold. So the alarm bells went off and the usual discussion points over soccer and ticket sales – prices, school night, relative roster strength, perceived mistakes in marketing the game, etc. – were dragged out and given the once-over.

This is always an area vulnerable to local soccer community worry, especially as competition for World Cup qualifiers and other premium international soccer events gets heavier. I get that.

But let’s sprinkle some critical context into the discussion. In a nutshell, it’s this:

These U.S. national team matches in January are rarely big sellers.

The domestic soccer market is fairly sophisticated, which means potential buyers understand that bigger and better dates are ahead.  In 2013, that means World Cup qualifiers (Aren’t those always a hoot!), Gold Cup matches and a likely friendly against three-time World Cup champion Germany. Thus, a friendly in January featuring Jurgen Klinsmann’s “B” team is unlikely to be a fantastic draw no matter where you put it.

Similar early-year U.S. matches over the last 10 years have averaged about 13,000 and change. My guess: next week’s contest in Houston will top that, although perhaps not by a large margin. And that’s fine.

(For that average I just mentioned, I excluded early-year friendlies in 2007 and 2008 against Mexico. Those, I believe we can all agree, are a whole different jar of salsa. One of those contests, by the way, was in Houston, where it attracted 70,000-plus.)

If the U.S.-Canada contest at BBVA approaches the number of tickets sold for a United States contest two years ago in January against Chile (18,580), U.S. Soccer and the Houston community can fly the flag of success on this one. Celebrate, I say! ‘Ritas and Tex-Mex for all!

By the way, I love Canada and Canadians and Steve Nash and a whole bunch of other Canuck-related this and that. But Canada as opposition does lack a little fizz. Bless Dwayne De Rosario’s heart, but our northern neighbors are already out of World Cup consideration, having failed to escape the semifinal round.

Last time these teams hooked up in a January friendlies, in San Diego in 2006 and in Fort Lauderdale back in 2003, neither match reached 7,000 in attendance. Houston already has that beat.