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What’s left in England’s race to finish in the top four?

May 11, 2013, 10:28 AM EST

Tottenham Hotspur's Gareth Bale reacts during their Premier League soccer match against Manchester United at White Hart Lane in London Reuters

Technically, Chelsea didn’t sew up a top four finish with today’s win at Villa Park. But if it wasn’t for the most outlying scenarios demanding attention for the sake of accuracy, the possibilities of Chelsea finishing fifth wouldn’t even deserve our attention. Up six points on fifth with a huge goal difference edge, Rafa Benítez would give his first team an early vacation and the Blues would still be playing in Champions League next fall.

But for the sake of discussion (and to see what’s left to decide fourth place), let’s take a look at what remains for England’s third-through-fifth place teams – the three clubs competing for the league’s two final UEFA Champions League.

Current Standings

  • 3. Chelsea – 37 games played, 72 points, +35 goal difference.
  • 4. Arsenal – 36 games played, 67 points, +31 goal difference.
  • 5. Tottenham Hotspur – 36 games played, 66 points, +18 goal difference.

(Manchester United and Manchester City have already secured Champions League spots.)

What’s Left

Chelsea

It almost doesn’t matter. There’s no way Tottenham Hotspur are outscoring their opponents by the 17 goals they’d need to have a chance to take advantage of a Chelsea slip. And if they do, they’ll surely start with a barrage tomorrow at Stoke City, one which will give the Blues a chance to pause and reconsider. ‘Maybe we should take our finale against Everton seriously?’

It’s not going to happen. No way is it even on André Villas-Boas’s radar. The last Champions League spot is all about Spurs and Arsenal.

That will give Chelsea a chance to concentrate on silverware. Wednesday in Amsterdam, the Blues meet Benfica in the Europa League final, a chance to a fourth different European trophy to their selves. It ma not be the honor Blues fans would have wanted (one that required Champions League failure to qualify for it), but years from now, supporters may look back fondly if the honor helps round out the club’s European resume.

Should they do that, expect a second choice team to take the pitch against Everton. The regulars and veterans? They’ll be given a chance to enjoy their title. They may be dealing with some lingering dehydration come kickoff in West London.

Arsenal

The Gunners need win in their last two games to see their way back into Champions League – a competition they’ve been in each of the last 14 years. The only thing standing between them and a 15th straight appearance are a wins against Wigan and Newcastle (or a slip by Spurs).

It’s a fortunate run-in. True, both the Latics and Magpie will be fueled by relegation concerns, but ultimately, you’d rather play bad teams than good. And right now, neither Wigan nor Newcastle are good.

Arsenal host Wigan on Tuesday, three days after the Latics try for their first major trophy in the FA Cup final. Expect Roberto Martínez to start a full team on short rest. Given Wigan’s style and Arsenal’s talents, the Gunners should be able to pass the Latics into submission. Even if things go awry, Arsène Wenger’s men should be able to wait out a late win.

Their final game is at St. James Park, visiting a Newcastle team that’s been one of the league’s worst since spring. The Magpies have only won once since March 10, a 1-0 home win over equally inept Fulham. Amid speculation of a divided locker room and galling performances like the recent 6-0 home loss to Liverpool, Newcastle carry many of the pox of a relegation disaster. Fortunately for them, Wigan may have run out of time.

Tottenham Hotspur

Like Arsenal’s, Spurs’ run-in is relatively easy – a visit to Stoke followed by a finale against Sunderland at White Hart Lane. Their destiny may be out of their control, but with two fixtures against struggling sides, Tottenham can force Arsenal to get full points to take fourth place.

If Arsenal doesn’t get two wins, Spurs can snag a top four spot with two wins. And if the Gunners win out? Spurs are done.

But let’s stop and consider the Spurs season if they do claim two wins. That would put them on 72 points one season after 69 secured a fourth place finish. Last season, 72 points would have claimed third place and pushed Arsenal into Champions League. This year, after losing Luka Modric in August, André Villa-Boas could better Harry Redknapp’s mark.

There’s still a chance 72 will be enough to get Spurs into Champions League. Though Arsenal has been in Champions League every year since 2001, it’s been a long time since they’ve been pushed for a spot, and since the Invincibles started leaving North London, Arsenal hasn’t been above an unexpected stumble.

The odds aren’t short, but for Spurs,  it’s not mission impossible. Unfortunately, their Champions League future remains in their rivals’ hands.

  1. ffuncensored - May 11, 2013 at 11:21 AM

    Booooooooooooooooo…

    It may be Mission: Impossible for Spurs but not THAT impossible! Arsenal only on 67 points!

    Spurs take all 6 and the Gunners blow it by drawing at St. James’ Park

  2. jdubyacoys - May 11, 2013 at 11:23 AM

    Arsenal are on 67 points, otherwise spot on

    • Richard Farley - May 11, 2013 at 11:24 AM

      Thanks, guys!

  3. pf1977 - May 11, 2013 at 1:13 PM

    arsenal host wigan on tuesday, not travel there.

    i think i would be more surprised if arsenal beat tottenham to that fourth spot.

    • Richard Farley - May 11, 2013 at 1:15 PM

      Yeesh, thanks for that correction, too!

      • galpaugh - May 11, 2013 at 5:26 PM

        Richard, this is a great article, and I enjoy your writing immensely. There’s one thing you (and many other writers including the venerable Grant Wahl) do that drives me absolutely crazy. Why do you struggle to include the article “the” before Champions League? You would never say that a team was hoping to be “promoted to Premier League,” you would say they are fighting to be “promoted to THE Premier League.” However, when talking about the Champions League, grammar goes out the window. What gives? Why do you say Spurs are trying to “get into Champions League” and not Spurs are trying to “get into THE Champions League?” It’s like nails on a chalkboard, man.

  4. Richard Farley - May 11, 2013 at 7:43 PM

    Thanks, galpaugh. I think this is the second time I’ve ever heard this question, so you’re not necessarily the only person who has noticed this.

    We (at this point, subconsciously) elect not to use “the” because that’s how Champions League is often, if not most commonly, used, which is probably why for Mr. Wahl it gets past his editors. It’s probably why it’s gotten approval at places where I have to go through an editorial process.

    Champions League doesn’t need the “the” in front of it, just like you wouldn’t say “the” MLS. You would, however, say “the” Premier League but not “the” Ligue 1. You’d say “the” Bundesliga, but you wouldn’t always say “the” Serie A.

    Sorry that annoys you, and I appreciate the question, but like most linguistic conventions, it’s really more about custom than hard rules. Some would say “the” UEFA Champions League or “the” Serie A, but you’ll find plenty who justifiably don’t.

    • galpaugh - May 11, 2013 at 8:03 PM

      I have to say that I can’t disagree with you more. I listen to a lot of podcasts (Football Weekly with James Richardson twice a week, The Game Podcast with Gab Marcotti, the Football Ramble, etc.) and NONE of the English journalists who appear on those shows conform to the “convention” you claim. Ever! It’s only people on the American soccer beat like yourself, Grant Wahl, and Ives Galarcep who do this, and it only started recently (like the last year or two). The reason I think it happens is because Grant Wahl is guilty of a ton of linguistic over-corrections, which, in an attempt to make himself sound “authentic” make him sound like an idiot.

      Seriously, though. Go to the Wikipedia article for “UEFA Champions League” and CTRL+F search for “the Champions League.” 18 TIMES the phrase appears, including the opening sentence where the article explains that the “UEFA Champions League” is often known simply as “the Champions League.” I’m not trying to be a dick about this, but you’re just wrong on the merits on this one and it drives me crazy.

      • Richard Farley - May 11, 2013 at 8:27 PM

        I respect your opinion, but to say that people who disagree with it — be it myself, Wahl, our editors, or countless others — are wrong goes a bit too far, I think. Just as you cited a Wikipedia article, you also cited a lot of those uses without the “the.”

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