Skip to content

Confederations Cup semifinals preview: Spain, Brazil favorites in Cinderella-free final four

Jun 23, 2013, 6:00 PM EST

Andres Iniesta AP

It’s get a bit strange when an American writer tries too hard to force an U.S. angle into an international story, but this year’s Confederations Cup knockout rounds sure seem to be missing that U.S.-factor. They also missing that South Africa-factor, but few people remember the Bafana Bafana were the other underdog in 2009’s final four. It was the U.S.’s shock win over Spain that gave the tournament its Cinderella story, albeit one that was squashed in the final.

This year, Brazil and Spain are back (shocking, I know), though 2009’s Rudys have replaced by two relative titans. Though think of Uruguay as a top shelf option, a résumé that includes two World Cups, a pair of fully open Olympic titles, and 15 South American championships casts La Celeste as more than plucky underdogs. And Italy? The fourth semifinalists? Less than two cycles removed from a world title, nobody’s going to buy them as a South Africa or U.S.

So in lieu of contrast, we’ll have to lean on quality, something that’s been in no short supply during this year’s tournament. Whereas we came into the Confederations Cup with continued questions about a competition that’s seen as a pre-World Cup dress rehearsal, Italy’s trio of matches (especially their 4-3 win over Japan) reminded us world-class talents always justify soccer for soccer’s sake. Spain’s opened showed their unprecedented dominance will always be worth two hours of our time, while Brazil’s surprisingly strong performances give the home crowd reason to discard pessimism and embrace hopes for 2014.

Along with Uruguay, those three create a quartet to rival 2005’s as tournament’s strongest semifinal field. That year, Germany and Argentina came out of one group, facing Mexico and Brazil from the other. The two South American teams navigated close semifinals before the Selecao blitzed their rivals in a 4-1 final.

How long ago was that? Adriano, on his way to a career as the Michelin man’s Brazilian stunt double, won both the Golden Boot and Golden Ball. That so few people remember (or care) about that may be a testament to this tournament’s historical insignificance, but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t expect a few more amazing performances.

source: Getty ImagesBrazil vs. Uruguay, Wednesday, 3:00 p.m. Eastern, Belo Horizonte

Context: Uruguay won the 2011 Copa America to qualify for this tournament, a campaign that saw them avoid the Selecao. And unless you count the Olympics (a weird U-23 hybrid tournament), it’s also the last time Brazil played a competitive match before this tournament.

With the re-hiring of Luiz Felipe Scolari, Brazil seem to have moved on from that strange, ineffectual side that lacked an identity under Mano Menezes. Though you could apply the same description to Scolari’s team before this tournament, group stage hinted his team has turned the corner. Brazil’s three games, three wins, and a +7 goal difference in what was expected to be a tough group? No one should have expected such a convincing run.

Uruguay hasn’t been as convincing, but there’s reason to think they’re improved over the team that’s struggled though World Cup Qualifying. With Diego Forlán re-emerging, Óscar Tabarez could go back to using the broken formation that served them so well in South Africa, a setup that can look like a 4-3-3 or a 3-4-3 (depending on how high Maxi Pereira’s played on the right).

Matchup: With that approach, expect Uruguay to willingly cede possession to Brazil, using three midfielders deep with the hopes they can hold their hosts at arm’s length while trying to hit them on the counter. It will be up to Oscar to create, Fred to find space, and Paulinho (if healthy) to surge forward, all with the hope they’ll either create a threat to complement Neymar, who has scored in every game.

For Tabarez’s team, it will be up to that midfield three — Árvaro Gonzalez, Arévalo Rios, and Christian Rodriguez — to hit those forwards. Forlán will do most of the connecting, but if needed, Edinson Cavani can win a ball anywhere across the width of the pitch. All of which, when working, should lead to chances for Luis Suárez, one of the world’s most dangerous goal scorers.

Outlook: A Brazil loss would be considered a mild upset, yet had you predicted the same result before the tournament started, you wouldn’t have gotten any crazy looks. If Uruguay can justify those picks, they’ll merely show Brazil, for all the potential they’ve shown in group stage, has a couple of important steps remaining before next year’s World Cup.

source:  Spain vs. Italy, Thursday, 3:00 p.m. Eastern, Fortaleza

Context: Spain continues to be the world’s best team. If anything, this tournament’s only enhanced that stature. Their dominance of Uruguay in match one (attempting nearly 1,000 passes) reminded us of their potential. They galloped to a 10-0 win over Tahiti. While a strong performance from the Nigerians provided an unexpected test, there was never a sense Spain were going to be upset. It may not have been the toughest route, but in its hard to imagine another team cutting through Group B with the same ease as Spain.

In contrast, Italy’s run to the knockout round was more entertaining than assured, their eight goals shredding defenses at the same rate the Azzurri were conceding at their own end. After giving up only a penalty kick goal in their opener against Mexico, Italy’s allowed seven in their last two games, including four in their final 46 minutes against Brazil.

The quartet allowed to the hosts was only the second time in Gianluigi Buffon’s career the Juventus icon’s been beaten four times. The other came last year, when Spain routed Italy in Ukraine to claim La Furia Roja’s second consecutive European title. Unfortunately, while Italian fans will hope that embarrassment was a one-off, little appears to have chanced since last year’s agony.

Matchup: Under Cesare Prandelli, Italy’s often eschewed the stereotype of possession-shunning opportunists, yet against teams whose on-the-ball skills match the Azzurri’s, even Prandelli’s teams have played to type. While Italy may now be more willing to retain the ball, shunning quick, dramatic movements for sustained-if-direct attacks, they’re not afraid to sit back, allow their opponents to dictate the game, and wait for cracks to emerge.

Part of that shift against better opponents is due to the personnel at Prandelli’s disposal. Italy are an older side, and with few exceptions, their team lacks speed. Asking them to pursue younger, quicker challengers would see them to play to their weaknesses. Against the world’s best, Italy has to recognize their limitations.

Unfortunately for them, those limitations play right into Spain’s hands. Their midfield and defense lacks the speed to keep up with a Spanish game that offers unparalleled quickness and movement. Players like Xavi Hernandez, Andres Iniesta, and Sergio Busquets move the ball too quickly and too often, their experience picking apart defenses sure to create opportunities for Roberto Soldado and Pedro Rodríguez.

When Italy do win the ball, they’re ill-equipped to possess it against Spain’s maniacal pressure, their squad lacking quickness from the players between deep midfielder Andrea Pirlo and striker Mario Balotelli. Those players who do have the foot speed lack the quality to best the Spaniards.

As with most teams, Italy will left hoping their individual talents can do something to transcend the vortex Spain’s talent and style create for each opponent.

Outlook: It’s not difficult to see why Italy lost 4-0 last summer, but even by Spain’s standards, that’s an aberrational result. The Italians should hope that patient, stalwart defending will keep them close enough for a couple of moments of brilliance to matter. But make no mistake about it: It’s going to take something special for the Italians to redeem last summer’s result.

Latest Posts
  1. Southampton 0-1 Swansea: Shelvey snatches win with sensational late strike

    Feb 1, 2015, 12:53 PM EST

    Shelvey Getty Images

    A stunner from Jonjo Shelvey saw Swansea surprisingly through after a lackluster first hour.

  2. VIDEO: Arsene Wenger proud of Arsenal in 5-0 win as Villa fought hard

    Feb 1, 2015, 12:08 PM EST

    Wenger Getty Images

    Arsene Wenger felt the scoreline may not have reflected the true nature of the game, and that the second goal was the key one in breaking down the visitors to the Emirates earlier today.

  3. Celtic cruises into League Cup final with 2-0 grinder over Rangers

    Feb 1, 2015, 11:22 AM EST

    Celtic Getty Images

    A pair of first-half goals saw Celtic through to the Scottish League Cup final over rivals Rangers.

  4. Watch Live: Southampton vs Swansea City (Lineups and Live Stream)

    Feb 1, 2015, 10:39 AM EST

    Southampton Getty Images

    Southampton can jump right back into the top three with a win against a struggling Swansea side at home.

  5. Arsenal 5-0 Aston Villa: Gunners torch hapless Villa with deadly counters

    Feb 1, 2015, 10:21 AM EST

    Arsenal Getty Images

    Olivier Giroud opened things up inside 10 minutes and it was a sign of things to come as Aston Villa slumped to 612 minutes without a league goal.

  6. Knee problems strike again as Strootman back on the shelf for the season

    Feb 1, 2015, 9:03 AM EST

    Strootman Getty Images

    His ACL tear in the past, now a fresh injury concern has shelved the Dutch midfielder.

  7. Watch Live: Arsenal vs Aston Villa (Lineups and Live Stream)

    Feb 1, 2015, 7:44 AM EST

    Ozil Getty Images

    Mesut Ozil starts in the middle in place of injured Alexis Sanchez as Aston Villa comes to the Emirates.

  8. Diego Costa maintains his innocence, says “I’ve not done anything wrong”

    Jan 31, 2015, 11:20 PM EST

    Diego Costa, Chelsea FC Getty Images

    Diego Costa has again claimed his own innocence. And you know what? I believe that he believes he’s done nothing wrong.

  9. Sam Allardyce: Liverpool “weren’t outstanding at all,” injuries downed West Ham

    Jan 31, 2015, 10:43 PM EST

    Sam Allardyce, West Ham United Sam Allardyce, West Ham United

    Big Sam was quick to take the credit away from Liverpool and place the blame for Saturday’s loss on his own injury “crisis.”

  10. Louis van Gaal: Manchester United “killed the game” with loss at Leicester City in mind

    Jan 31, 2015, 9:24 PM EST

    Louis van Gaal, Manchester United Louis van Gaal, Manchester United

    Van Gaal remembers what happened last time his side led Leicester, and he learns his lessons the first time.

  11. DONE DEAL: Seydou Doumbia to Roma headlines quiet Saturday for transfers

    Jan 31, 2015, 8:30 PM EST

    Seydou Doumbia, CSKA Moscow Seydou Doumbia, CSKA Moscow

    All of the day’s confirmed, officially official transfer dealings from Saturday, Jan. 31.

  12. Africa Cup of Nations roundup: DR Congo, Equatorial Guinea into SF after wild day of events

    Jan 31, 2015, 7:27 PM EST

    Tunisia vs. Equatorial Guinea, AFCON 2015 Tunisia vs. Equatorial Guinea, AFCON 2015

    The actual games took a backseat to shenanigans as two of four semifinals places were booked on Saturday.

  13. Premier League Sunday preview: Top-half teams jockey for position

    Jan 31, 2015, 4:57 PM EST

    bae0b6330cf33479c7548821a12d22b5 Getty Images

    Arsenal and Southampton hope to keep their assaults on the Top Four in order, while Aston Villa and Swansea City hope to snap skids.

  14. Bundesliga wrap: Wolfsburg ends Bayern’s unbeaten dreams, USMNT’s Johnson strong

    Jan 31, 2015, 4:19 PM EST

    Germany Soccer Bundesliga AP

    And to think, we’ve still a pair of Sunday matches on the slate. Let’s go through what’s done and dusted.

  15. Premier League roundup: Big wins for Manchester United, Liverpool, Tottenham and more

    Jan 31, 2015, 3:40 PM EST

    FBL-ENG-PR-MAN UTD-LEICESTER FBL-ENG-PR-MAN UTD-LEICESTER

    There were eight games in the PL on a busy Saturday. Here’s how it all went down with recaps, analysis and much more.

  16. Pellegrini “not happy with a point”, takes sly shots at Mourinho’s game plan

    Jan 31, 2015, 3:20 PM EST

    Chelsea v Manchester City - Premier League Getty Images

    Manchester City’s boss thought his charges were very good, but is disappointed to snare a solitary point against Chelsea.

  17. Man City’s Lampard reacts to “bit of a strange day” in return to Chelsea (video)

    Jan 31, 2015, 3:12 PM EST

    FBL-ENG-PR-CHELSEA-MAN CITY Getty Images

    Lampard was the last player on the pitch, saluting both groups of supporters.

  18. Three things we learned from Chelsea vs. Manchester City

    Jan 31, 2015, 3:06 PM EST

    Chelsea v Manchester City - Premier League Getty Images

    What did we learn from the tense draw at Stamford Bridge? Here’s three things.

  19. Player Ratings: How did Chelsea, Manchester City’s stand-in’s fare?

    Jan 31, 2015, 2:47 PM EST

    Remy slots home the opener. AP

    Giving Chelsea and City’s players a mark out of 10.

Featured video

Chelsea v Man City: Lampard the hero?