Skip to content

Fighting regression: Theories why McInerney, Magee can keep up their rates

Jun 24, 2013, 6:46 PM EDT

Jack McInerney-2

Among the three-way tie atop the league’s scoring charts, Marco Di Vaio’s name stands out. He’s the one established sniper, and although his goal rate was down over his last days in Italy and his initial arrival in Montréal, many picked the Bologna icon to have this type of effect when he arrived in North America. Through 13 starts this season with the Impact, the 36-year-old has 10 goals.

Jack McInerney, however, was mostly promise coming into the season, while Mike Magee was an established workhorse. Back in February, nobody picked either to challenge atop the league’s scoring charts. That we inch toward July with each challenging Di Vaio is surprising, with many expecting the duo to regress from their current rates.

This isn’t a law of averages thing. It’s not about things evening out. It’s about assessing capabilities. Is Jack McInerney really somebody who’s a two-in-three type of scorer right now? If you think so, then his current standing shouldn’t surprise you. And is Mike Magee really a player who, for the first time in his career, can get you three or four goals a month? That one seems harder to sell.

There are, however, reasons to believe each could sustain a high goal rate. Perhaps two-in-three is too much, but with changes each player has experienced in their club surroundings, it becomes easier to explain improvement over their previous totals.

Let’s start in Philadelphia, where a hot four months has Jack McInerney in the Gold Cup picture. His early returns, however, were based on a shots-on-goal conversation rate of over 50 percent. Whether it was especially good chances or improbably good finishing, the numbers said McInerney would slow up.

Now those numbers have slipped, down to 43.4 percent, yet JackMac is still atop the scoring charts. The reason may be something more sustainable. As Goal.com’s Keith Hickey describes at the end of his recent Union feature, the connection between McInerney and his head coach, John Hackworth, may be a factor, with the man who oversaw some of his training at Bradenton showing new confidence in the 20-year-old:

Hackworth oversaw McInerney as a high-schooler at Bradenton, was instrumental in drafting him as a Union player in 2010, and has built a bond that has been rewarded on the field. The key to unlocking the potential of his star striker it seems, is trust …

“Trust is not something you can develop with a conversation or in a short amount of time. It takes some time. I think there’s a reason that some players on this team and our staff have that level of trust. It’s because we, through different teams or situations, interacted with each other and had built up a lot of that trust… Jack is obviously an example of that and doing very well.”

McInerney’s conversation rate is regressing, but he’s also being used better than he was under Peter Nowak. That means more confidence, more chances, and a better chance of maintaining his goal rate.

Mike Magee’s situation has some similarities. Though his previous coach, Bruce Arena, didn’t lack for confidence in former Galaxy man, he was never seen as somebody to rely on for goals. (Oh, the luxuries of being a team with Robbie Keane and Landon Donovan.) Yet in Chicago, he’s immediately been installed as the focal point in attack, playing ahead of players like Chris Rolfe, Daniel Paladini, and Joel Lindpere – players who can create chances for him.

Put simply: All of Magee’s career numbers were accrued as a complementary player. Now, he’s the main man. Is he really that type of player? Somebody with skills to justify installing him as a focal point? In this discussion, it doesn’t matter. He’s certain to get more and better chances to score goals in his current job than he’s had at any other point in his career.

Their current rates will be near-impossible to maintain, but there’s reason to believe McInerney and Magee’s regressions won’t be as steep as their pasts suggest. There are narratives to support their newfound production.

Latest Posts
  1. A Klinsmann Casualty? Juan Agudelo passed on by Wolverhampton

    Oct 21, 2014, 8:15 PM EDT

    Dutch Eredivisie - Roda JC Kerkrade v FC Utrecht AP

    One hopes Agudelo’s story will resonate with Jurgen Klinsmann.

  2. Steven Gerrard admits he denied move to Real Madrid and that it may haunt him in the future

    Oct 21, 2014, 7:15 PM EDT

    Switzerland Soccer Champions League AP

    “It might be something I regret down the line for not challenging myself,” said Gerrard.

  3. Sunderland players offer traveling fans refund for 8-0 romp at Southampton

    Oct 21, 2014, 5:50 PM EDT

    Jack Cork, Vito Mannone

    The players will shell out over $90,000 to cover the cost of the traveling fans.

  4. UEFA Champions League roundup: Bayern, Chelsea, Shakhtar go crazy on 40-goal night

    Oct 21, 2014, 5:10 PM EDT

    AS Roma v FC Bayern Muenchen - UEFA Champions League Getty Images

    40 goals were scored in eight games on Tuesday, as Groups E-H exploded into life.

  5. Chelsea 6-0 Maribor: Hazard brace keeps Blues atop Group G

    Oct 21, 2014, 5:01 PM EDT

    Britain Soccer Champions League

    A sensational ending to a sensational performance by Hazard and Chelsea as a whole.

  6. AS Roma 1-7 Bayern Munich: Sublime Bayern smash Roma to go five points clear in Group E

    Oct 21, 2014, 4:35 PM EDT

    Italy Soccer Champions League AP

    When Bayern Munich are firing on all cylinders, they are scary, scary sight.

  7. FOLLOW LIVE: At the half, Chelsea leading Maribor 3-0

    Oct 21, 2014, 3:49 PM EDT

    Britain Soccer Premier League AP

    Unlucky for Maribor. Comfortable for Chelsea.

  8. LIVE – Champions League half time update: Blowouts! Get your blowouts here!

    Oct 21, 2014, 3:42 PM EDT

    FBL-EUR-C1-SHAKHTAR-PORTO Getty Images

    Groups E-H are in action on Wednesday in Europe as eight games take place, and there are some gaudy score lines after just 45 minutes.

  9. FOLLOW LIVE: At the half, unstoppable Bayern Munich up 5-0 at Roma

    Oct 21, 2014, 3:36 PM EDT

    arjen_robben AP

    It’s an absolute shellacking going into half-time with Bayern giving a masterclass display in Roma.

  10. Philadelphia Union CEO heavily implies they have their long-term manager in Curtin

    Oct 21, 2014, 3:00 PM EDT

    Jim Curtin AP

    It’s the right move for Philly, especially given the man management shown by Curtin.

  11. Manuel Pellegrini upbeat, but Manchester City’s Champions League dreams fading

    Oct 21, 2014, 2:48 PM EDT

    Pellegrini defiant despite City blowing a 2-0 lead in Moscow.

  12. 22-year-old set to start for Arsenal as injury woes hit goalkeepers

    Oct 21, 2014, 2:07 PM EDT

    Arsenal Training Session Getty Images

    Missing Koscielny is a far bigger blow than having to start a 22-year-old, though.

  13. CSKA Moscow 2-2 Manchester City: Citizens blow 2-0 lead, Champions League hopes in ruin

    Oct 21, 2014, 2:01 PM EDT

    AP

    City chuck away 2-0 lead in Russian capital, as UCL hopes hang in the balance.

  14. PST’s Major League Soccer power rankings: Did Seattle, DC leapfrog LA?

    Oct 21, 2014, 1:21 PM EDT

    Aaron Schoenfeld, Justin Meram, Tyson Wahl AP

    We’re going to have to have a talk about the presupposed power of the superior West at some point soon.

  15. FOLLOW LIVE – At the half, Manchester City running riot in Russia

    Oct 21, 2014, 12:58 PM EDT

    FBL-EUR-C1-CSKA MOSCOW-MAN CITY FBL-EUR-C1-CSKA MOSCOW-MAN CITY

    City storming towards their first UCL win of the season in snowy Moscow.

  16. Bale, Ramos out against Liverpool; Welshman could also miss El Clasico

    Oct 21, 2014, 11:40 AM EDT

    gareth_bale Getty Images

    Is it enough to tip the scales for Liverpool, or will one of Real’s bevy of offensive stars step in to help stop the Reds’ European hopes?

  17. Spanish report: Manchester United’s Herrera implicated in 2011 La Liga match fix

    Oct 21, 2014, 10:47 AM EDT

    Manchester United v West Ham United - Premier League Getty Images

    A final week La Liga match in 2011 has been under investigation for a while, and now former Real Zaragoza player Herrera is under scrutiny.

  18. PST’s MLS Player of the Week: Heavy on Eastern Conference nominees

    Oct 21, 2014, 10:01 AM EDT

    DynamoNewEngland AP

    A trio of Columbus players joins a regular New England nominee to battle names like Barnes, Martins and Husidic for our weekly honors.

  19. Premier League Team of the Week: Find out who starred on Matchday 8

    Oct 21, 2014, 9:08 AM EDT

    Southampton v Sunderland - Premier League Getty Images

    Find out which players were selected for the Round 8 team of the week in the Premier League.

Featured video

Week 8: Saturday PL recap