Jul 31, 2013, 6:22 PM EDT
If Gareth Bale moves to Real Madrid, and that’s still a huge if, he’ll crush the world transfer record. But that doesn’t mean he’s the best player in the world, as some’s confounding of the story has depicted. It doesn’t even necessarily mean he’s among the best players in the world. All it means is there’s a rich club that really wants him, and they want him because they think he’d one of the world’s best.
You would think this discussion is unnecessary, yet amid the slacken jaws that have met rumors of Gareth Bale’s fee extending above $123 million (far above, in some reports), a few people have confused that steep price as being a reflection on his best player in the world credentials. I suppose it’s a reasonable assumption considering the last three record-breaking purchases have been for Zinedine Zidane, Kaká, and Cristiano Ronaldo, all Balon d’ Or winners when their transfers set new standards. Zidane moved to Real Madrid from Juventus for just £53 million in 2001. Kaka moved to the Bernabeu from Milan for £56 million in 2009, and later that summer Cristiano Ronaldo joined Los Blancos from Manchester United for £80 million (roughly $122 million).
But beyond the basic economics (supply, demand, inflation, what have you), two things about those purchases should caution against drawing any “world’s best” conclusions from a transfer fee. First, if Kaká was the world’s best in 2009, why did his record fail to last an entire summer, before another game was played? Did Real Madrid re-evaluate Kaká and Ronaldo mid-summer? Secondly, all of these records are set by Real Madrid. Go back to Luis Figo in 2000, and the Merengues have set the world transfer record the last four times it’s been broken. Maybe this record’s as much about Real Madrid’s purchasing as it is a player’s relative value.
But beyond Real Madrid’s behaviors, this is about the market. There’s been a huge influx of money into European soccer since Ronaldo and Kaká moved four years ago, yet there’ve been few transfer targets that have the combination of elite skill, young age, locked in contract and current team’s wherewithal to drive up the price. Add in the negotiating practices of the notorious Mr. Levy (see Carrick, Keane, Berbatov, Modric) and you have a formula to not only break the transfer record but destroy it.
This entire argument has constructed a bit of a strawman, though, as it does seem like a mere incredulous minority feel the world’s best player is the only one who can garner a record fee. Most people are smart enough to grasp basic economic forces. They’re smart enough to have a picture of the market. Still, there’s still a huge undercurrent in this conversation that logically thinks a players fee should directly reflect his value on the field. To them, Bale is just not a world record-breaking player.
In truth, the record-breaker label is meaningless when you’re trying to assess Bale’s value. Instead of using a four-year old reference to a player who wasn’t game’s best when he set the current standard, instead ask what that standard would be if a player like Lionel Messi were put up for sale. Or better yet, if Cristiano Ronaldo were allowed to move. Would the old record be relevant to their prices, given the state of the European market? If you most look a Bale in terms of relative value (instead of the various economic and competitive benefits he’d bring to Real Madrid), you have to develop a hypothesis about Messi and Ronaldo’s corresponding value.
The world transfer record is no more relevant to Bale’s current price than it would be Ronaldo’s. All of these records are set because one team, independent of where some antiquated standard sits, is willing to pay a price for a player. Real Madrid would pay more for Messi, if they had a chance, and they’d probably pay more to acquire Ronaldo, were he playing elsewhere. But just because Bale’s value comes in under those two’s doesn’t mean it couldn’t also come in above standards set in 2009.
Sep 3, 2015, 10:13 AM EDT
Who would’ve guessed it, the Gunners are short on strikers…
Sep 3, 2015, 9:36 AM EDT
After his game-winner from halfway last season, Cicerone is at it again.
Sep 3, 2015, 8:40 AM EDT
Klinsmann’s side move up, but remain out of the top 20.
Sep 3, 2015, 8:00 AM EDT
Chicharito has the following message for United’s fans after five years at Old Trafford.
Sep 2, 2015, 9:57 PM EDT
The NBC Deadline Day show is here in podcast form.
Sep 2, 2015, 9:32 PM EDT
A fraction of the transfer fee has made its way to the lower division team in France that helped mold Anthony Martial into the $55 million player he is today.
Sep 2, 2015, 8:18 PM EDT
Rog and Davo break down Chelsea’s loss to Crystal Palace and Swansea’s stylish win over Manchester United. Plus, a recap of transfer deadline day.
Sep 2, 2015, 6:56 PM EDT
Tim Howard looked good for Everton last weekend, but the U.S. coach says it’s too close to the Mexico game to make a change.
Sep 2, 2015, 5:42 PM EDT
The former Chelsea defender is no longer listed on the team’s website and was left out of both the club’s domestic and European squads.
Sep 2, 2015, 4:29 PM EDT
The paperwork was late, and FIFA rejected the deal, but the two sides still wish for it to be completed.
Sep 2, 2015, 3:40 PM EDT
The San Siro wanted Zlatan back, but he is happy in France.
Sep 2, 2015, 2:46 PM EDT
Villa had a very quiet Deadline Day, but they tried to make a splash.
Sep 2, 2015, 2:07 PM EDT
After the match, Noble said it was a tackle that happens “10 times a game” and that he felt it didn’t even deserve a yellow card.
Sep 2, 2015, 1:15 PM EDT
After finishing second in its group thanks to a 3-1 win over the Netherlands, Herzog’s Yanks toppled England’s U-20 team this summer. Now: the U-21s.
Spain’s Del Bosque says De Gea’s Euro spot in trouble without playing time; Speaks on Chelsea’s Costa
Sep 2, 2015, 12:31 PM EDT
“He needs to be professional and move on from this episode,” Del Bosque said of the Manchester United keeper.
Sep 2, 2015, 11:29 AM EDT
Unified Germany hasn’t medaled since 1964 in Tokyo (Bronze). East Germany won gold in 1976.
Sep 2, 2015, 11:12 AM EDT
“The Financial Fair Play today is too complicated to be efficient,” said the Premier League’s longest-tenured manager. “There’s a need to simplify the process.”
Sep 2, 2015, 9:24 AM EDT
Bournemouth took a big hit on transfer deadine day, but it had nothing to do with sales or purchases.
Sep 2, 2015, 8:47 AM EDT
Let’s dig into the figures, at least in terms of the 20 Premier League clubs, including the controversial amount of players on loan from Chelsea.
- Arsenal’s striker fears grow: Danny Welbeck has surgery, out long-term 1
- USMNT move up one spot in latest FIFA World rankings 1
- Klinsmann confirms Brad Guzan will start Confederations Cup playoff in goal 4
- Full list of every transfer made by Premier League clubs during the Summer Transfer Window 0
- Manchester United fires back on De Gea saga, laying blame at feet of Real Madrid 1
- GRADES: How did each Premier League team fare in the Summer Transfer Window? 7