Sep 17, 2013, 11:30 PM EST
A six-game season leaves very little margin for error. This can be easy to forget with Champions League because the group stage is so spread out, leaving too much time to fine solace in the two months teams have to recover. But if this were a league and one-sixth of the season (six or seven games) had done by, every headline about the team would include the word “panic.” The truth is surely somewhere in between.
A better, more nuanced way to look at it: There are certain matches you expect to win to get the points you need to advance. When that doesn’t happen, group stage becomes unforgiving. All of a sudden you’re staring at games you thought you could lose realizing you now need a result.
That’s where Real Sociedad is after today’s loss. Same with Galatasaray, Olympaicos, and Viktoria Plzen. Each team lost at home, meaning at some point (if they want to advance) they’ll need to go on the road to reclaim what they’ve lost.
Conversely, Manchester City, Paris Saint-Germain, Real Madrid, and Shakhtar Donetsk each created room for error. With road wins, they bought themselves one slip. Drop points at home later in the tournament, and they can lean on today’s result. In the case of Shakhtar, if you’re likely to be in a battle for a knockout round spot with the team you just beat, you’ve created a huge obstacle for your rival.
Beyond the standings, those are the scenarios you have to look at after match day one. It’s not so much where you sit right now. It’s more about whether you’ve taken points you shouldn’t have or dropped points you wanted.
Here’s where Groups A through D stand after day one of Champions League.
To each of these standings we’ve added a column labeled +/-: a crude attempt to track how many points a team has dropped at home (minus) or picked up on the road (plus). It’s a very crude attempt to gauge the extent to which teams are holding serve.
Manchester United’s win was convincing, but they essentially held serve at home against Bayer. The Germans now know where they stand without dropping any significant points. Every team’s aware they could lose at Old Trafford.
Shakhtar, however, scored a huge win, particularly considering they were decidedly outplayed in the first half at San Sebastian. After two second half goals, the Ukrainian champions snatched three road points against one of the teams they’ll compete with for (at least) second place. In the process, they dealt Real Sociedad a significant blow.
Gala’s plus-minus column reads -3, but they’re not the only team that’s going to lose at home to Real Madrid. There’s some chance that may even out over the course of the tournament.
Likewise, Juventus may be disappointed with their result, but the big picture’s more kind. They picked up a road point, and while they may have expected to get a win in Copenhagen, holding serve at home will likely get them into the knockout round.
This is what’s so crazy about PSG’s performance (and Shakhtar’s, for that matter). They were second best for 45 minutes but still even going into halftime, where they could have braced themselves to dig in and survive their road challenge. Instead, they go out and secure a multi-goal victory, turning a tolerable draw or loss into three road points.
On the other end of that is Olympiacos, whose loss isn’t as disastrous as Real Sociedad’s. PSG is the clear alpha in this group and could take points in their other road matches. If that happens, Olympiacos’s loss could turn out to like Anderlecht’s: Disappointing, but ultimately not a big deal.
The problem for Plzen, who may be looking at Europa League (third place) as a viable goal, is not so much the loss today. It’s what happens when Manchester City goes to Russia. City could win there, to0, giving CSKA the same -3 road points Plzen were dealt today. But CSKA’s also capable of winning that game. Or at least drawing. Plzen may not have lost ground on City as much as they’ve potentially lost ground to CSKA.
For the Russians, today’s result was a rare loss from a team that’d gone undefeated through eight Russian rounds. But ultimately, this group isn’t going to be defined by results in Munich.
Jan 26, 2015, 9:45 PM EST
Hope Solo’s punishment for repeated alcohol-related incidents could extend much further than her initial 30-day suspension.
Jan 26, 2015, 8:22 PM EST
3-4 months on the sidelines means a massive hole to fill to start the 2015 season.
Jan 26, 2015, 7:10 PM EST
After two more places in the knockout rounds were booked on Tuesday, half the quarterfinal matchups are set.
Jan 26, 2015, 6:15 PM EST
Half the current USMNT roster was built with the Gold Cup in mind, while the other half is about next year’s Olympics. So, who’s who, then?
Jan 26, 2015, 4:05 PM EST
After eight months without a club, Juan Agudelo is reportedly returning to the place he should have been all along: MLS.
Jan 26, 2015, 2:59 PM EST
As the soccer world will no longer see the maverick skills of the Argentine playmaker, here’s a look at some of his best moments.
Jan 26, 2015, 2:38 PM EST
Here’s the draw for the last 16 of the FA Cup, as PL big boys get more tough tests.
Jan 26, 2015, 1:57 PM EST
Van Praag announces his intentions to run against Blatter, says he has the backing of five federations.
Jan 26, 2015, 1:00 PM EST
Betting on five underdogs away from home in the FA Cup will win you serious cash.
Jan 26, 2015, 12:32 PM EST
Fagundez explains why he couldn’t wait any longer to select his national team.
Jan 26, 2015, 12:00 PM EST
If Wolfsburg can agree a fee for Schurrle, should he leave Stamford Bridge?
Jan 26, 2015, 11:26 AM EST
Carver will take charge for the final 16 games of the season… but what then?
Jan 26, 2015, 9:55 AM EST
Red Bulls attacker heading to Abu Dhabi?
Jan 26, 2015, 9:20 AM EST
The signing of two Venezuelan youngsters could put Real in plenty of trouble with FIFA, as Barcelona-esque transfer ban could be on the cards.
Jan 26, 2015, 8:34 AM EST
The Koreans will face either Australia or the UAE in Saturday’s final in Sydney.
Jan 26, 2015, 8:00 AM EST
All the latest gossip, right here.
Jan 25, 2015, 11:33 PM EST
“I am concerned, not because of Chelsea but because we didn’t score in our last two home games,” Pellegrini said.
Jan 25, 2015, 10:50 PM EST
The 33-year-old Cameroonian striker joins a Sampdoria side currently tied for third in the table with 34 points.
Jan 25, 2015, 10:13 PM EST
“If he’s not ready for Tuesday then he’ll be back, for sure, against West Ham next weekend,” Rodgers said.
Jan 25, 2015, 9:22 PM EST
Maloney turned 32 on Saturday and will be unveiled by Chicago on Monday.
- Chile vs. USA preview: Who’s here to stay as USMNT kicks off 2015? 0
- Report: Juan Agudelo close to signing with his former MLS team, New England Revolution 4
- Head of Dutch FA, Michael van Praag, will challenge Blatter for FIFA presidency 2
- Newcastle United name John Carver head coach until end of 2014-15 season 0
- Transfer ban for Real Madrid? Probe launched after signing of Venezuelan kids 3
- Transfer rumor roundup: Ings to Tottenham Hotspur, Busquets to Manchester United 0