Oct 23, 2013, 1:39 AM EDT
After three rounds of UEFA Champions League, every team has faced their group opponents once, giving us a good idea of the teams’ relative quality. We can see Atlético’s the best in their group. Chelsea’s overcome their early misstep. Barcelona’s going to take top spot in Group H. These things are pretty clear.
Other, closer races force you to remember: Teams have yet to face each other home-and-road, and no team has played an equal number of games away as they have in front of their own fans. If you’ve played two of your three on the road, you may have had a more difficult start than a team above you in the standings, something that needs to be remembered when you’re assessing your (and other teams’) chances of moving on.
Take Arsenal, for example. They’re at the top of their group, albeit in a three-way tie with Borussia Dortmund and Napoli. But they’ve also had two home games, whereas both their competitors have played twice on the road. The Gunners’ road trip was also their easiest one. Things are about to get much more difficult for Arsène Wenger’s troop, while their opponents’ slates get easier.
Then think about Atlético Madrid. They’re perfect through three rounds, but they’ve also played two games on the road, having won at the Estadio do Dragão – what was supposed to be their toughest game. They’re not only off to a flying start. They’ve done so without the help of their schedule.
Here’s where Groups E through H stand after Tuesday’s Champions League action:
* – To each of these standings we’ve added a column labeled +/-: a crude attempt to track how many points a team has dropped at home (minus) or picked up on the road (plus). It’s a very crude attempt to gauge the extent to which teams are holding serve.
In Groups E, F, and G, one team has been picked out as the weakest link, giving us something else to keep in mind beyond that +/- column. Dropping points to that last place team could be decisive. If the group’s other teams claim six from the also ran, you need to do that same; else, the points you drop could be the difference between moving on and going to Europa League.
Today, Basel essentially dropped points. Both Chelsea and Schalke had already defeated Steaua, but Basel couldn’t do the same, and while it’s perfectly understandable why Murat Yakin’s team would “stumble” in Bucharest, they need to make up those points. Schalke’s trip to Romania now becomes more important to Basel’s knockout round hopes, because although the Swiss champions will likely pass the Miners next round (Schalke visiting Chelsea while Basel host Steaua), they still have to make a trip to Gelsenkirchen.
Three teams with six points, and only one’s truly ahead of the game, though you wouldn’t know if from the right column. With their win in Marseille, Napoli have picked up points on the road, but they’re points Arsenal have also claimed. Winning at the Velodrome has become obligatory, not progressing.
Dortmund, on the other hand, picked up three points at Arsenal, a place where Napoli’s already lost. They also have yet to visit France while still having home games against their two co-leaders. They’re in good shape.
Arsenal, though, may have created trouble for themselves with today’s loss. They still have to go to Germany, which they’ll do next round, and they still have to visit Naples. The only reprieve in their group stage run-in is a visit from Marseille, but again: Beating l’OM has become obligatory, in this group.
If everybody wins at home and losses on the road (with the exception of games at Marseille), Dortmund and Napoli are through. Arsenal’s in Europa League.
|Zenit St. Petersburg||3||1||1||1||2||3||-1||0-0-1||1-1-0||4||+1|
A five-point lead after three of six rounds is huge, but it looks even bigger when you see Atlético’s played two games on the road. They’ve also already hosted and beaten the group’s second place team and have taken three points from what was supposed to have been their most difficult road opponent (Porto). A win next round clinches a knockout round spot, while a draw in St. Petersburg between Zenit and Porto allows that same win to give Atlético the group’s top seed. They’re winning this group.
Zenit’s got the inside track on the second seed considering the back half of their schedule gives them both tough games at home. That increases the importance of Porto’s trip to Zenit – the teams’ next match. Zenit can take a commanding lead with a win, but even a draw will keep the Russians in control. Whereas Porto still has to go to the Vicente Calderon, Zenit gets Atlético at home.
This group’s sorting itself out as expected, with Barcelona and Milan drifting toward the group’s top seeds. The big danger for Milan will be a Celtic win over Ajax next round. If that happens, Milan may need a result in Glasgow to go through.
That sounds more ominous that it is. The scenario would require Celtic to win in Amsterdam before defeating Milan, and while each result in isolation is certainly possible, both results together becomes much more unlikely. Not to get all high school math on you, but if Celtic have a 60 percent change of winning their home game and a 40 percent chance of winning on the road (numbers I’ve made up out of thin air), they’re going to do both fewer than one time in four. Milan’s still in good shape.
Jun 29, 2015, 11:25 PM EDT
A huge blow for Mexico as an injury will keep Mexico’s best defender off their Gold Cup squad.
Jun 29, 2015, 10:26 PM EDT
Ronaldinho is on the move again, and (thankfully) he’s not coming to MLS.
Jun 29, 2015, 9:23 PM EDT
Chile will play for their first Copa America title on Saturday. A chance to make history at home.
Jun 29, 2015, 8:31 PM EDT
Guus Hiddink is out as Dutch national team manager after less than a year in charge. Who do they turn to now, ahead of EURO 2016?
Jun 29, 2015, 7:04 PM EDT
It’s No. 1 vs. No. 2 in the world, but it’s only a semifinal.
Jun 29, 2015, 6:00 PM EDT
By the end of tonight, either Chile or Peru will have booked their place in the final.
Jun 29, 2015, 5:10 PM EDT
A goal and an assist — finally a dominant performance — in the weekend’s biggest rivalry game earns Darlington Nagbe POTW honors.
Jun 29, 2015, 4:27 PM EDT
“Rivalry Week” is in the books, and a number of derby day conquerors find themselves on the last MLS Team of the Week.
Jun 29, 2015, 3:21 PM EDT
Rog talks with the USWNT’s Meghan Klingenberg about the team’s lockdown defense, her karate training, and living with Jeff Van Gundy’s family.
Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup fifth round preview: Cosmos look to do MLS’ N.Y. double, Charlotte hits Chicago
Jun 29, 2015, 3:07 PM EDT
Here’s what’s on tap for Tuesday and Wednesday as the USSF tournament stays regional.
Jun 29, 2015, 2:23 PM EDT
Toronto FC and L.A. will kick off at 10:30 p.m. ET on Saturday. The Galaxy have won two of their last three matches.
Jun 29, 2015, 1:40 PM EDT
You think gossip’s going to take a Monday off? Pssh, please.
Jun 29, 2015, 12:52 PM EDT
Guangzhou Evergrande have added a big name to their title charge in the Chinese Super League.
Jun 29, 2015, 11:39 AM EDT
Many if not all neutral fans expect Argentina and Chile to make it through their Copa America semifinals en route to a border battle final.
Jun 29, 2015, 10:45 AM EDT
That picture is weird, but we’ll get used to it once the Premier League season begins in August.
Jun 29, 2015, 10:06 AM EDT
Less talking, more ranking. Feel free to debate in the comments section.
Jun 29, 2015, 8:30 AM EDT
FIFA’s weather-related move of the 2022 World Cup from to November-December has its first legal challenge.
Jun 29, 2015, 7:57 AM EDT
Could women’s football in England be en route to a Brandi Chastain moment of their own?
Jun 28, 2015, 11:37 PM EDT
Some vacationing footballers enjoying a bit of head-tennis
Jun 28, 2015, 9:54 PM EDT
Final: Timbers 4-1 Sounders
- Foot injury forces DF Hector Moreno to withdraw from Mexico’s 2015 Gold Cup squad 0
- Chile 2-1 Peru: Vargas’ wondergoal puts the hosts through to Copa America final (video) 0
- Men in Blazers podcast special: USWNT’s Klingenberg talks defense, Germany, karate 1
- It’s official: Petr Cech has swapped London clubs, Chelsea to Arsenal 4
- Spanish football league becomes first to take legal action over Qatar World Cup dates 3
- England’s case of World Cup fever just what the doctor ordered for women’s soccer in Britain 3