Oct 23, 2013, 1:39 AM EST
After three rounds of UEFA Champions League, every team has faced their group opponents once, giving us a good idea of the teams’ relative quality. We can see Atlético’s the best in their group. Chelsea’s overcome their early misstep. Barcelona’s going to take top spot in Group H. These things are pretty clear.
Other, closer races force you to remember: Teams have yet to face each other home-and-road, and no team has played an equal number of games away as they have in front of their own fans. If you’ve played two of your three on the road, you may have had a more difficult start than a team above you in the standings, something that needs to be remembered when you’re assessing your (and other teams’) chances of moving on.
Take Arsenal, for example. They’re at the top of their group, albeit in a three-way tie with Borussia Dortmund and Napoli. But they’ve also had two home games, whereas both their competitors have played twice on the road. The Gunners’ road trip was also their easiest one. Things are about to get much more difficult for Arsène Wenger’s troop, while their opponents’ slates get easier.
Then think about Atlético Madrid. They’re perfect through three rounds, but they’ve also played two games on the road, having won at the Estadio do Dragão – what was supposed to be their toughest game. They’re not only off to a flying start. They’ve done so without the help of their schedule.
Here’s where Groups E through H stand after Tuesday’s Champions League action:
* – To each of these standings we’ve added a column labeled +/-: a crude attempt to track how many points a team has dropped at home (minus) or picked up on the road (plus). It’s a very crude attempt to gauge the extent to which teams are holding serve.
In Groups E, F, and G, one team has been picked out as the weakest link, giving us something else to keep in mind beyond that +/- column. Dropping points to that last place team could be decisive. If the group’s other teams claim six from the also ran, you need to do that same; else, the points you drop could be the difference between moving on and going to Europa League.
Today, Basel essentially dropped points. Both Chelsea and Schalke had already defeated Steaua, but Basel couldn’t do the same, and while it’s perfectly understandable why Murat Yakin’s team would “stumble” in Bucharest, they need to make up those points. Schalke’s trip to Romania now becomes more important to Basel’s knockout round hopes, because although the Swiss champions will likely pass the Miners next round (Schalke visiting Chelsea while Basel host Steaua), they still have to make a trip to Gelsenkirchen.
Three teams with six points, and only one’s truly ahead of the game, though you wouldn’t know if from the right column. With their win in Marseille, Napoli have picked up points on the road, but they’re points Arsenal have also claimed. Winning at the Velodrome has become obligatory, not progressing.
Dortmund, on the other hand, picked up three points at Arsenal, a place where Napoli’s already lost. They also have yet to visit France while still having home games against their two co-leaders. They’re in good shape.
Arsenal, though, may have created trouble for themselves with today’s loss. They still have to go to Germany, which they’ll do next round, and they still have to visit Naples. The only reprieve in their group stage run-in is a visit from Marseille, but again: Beating l’OM has become obligatory, in this group.
If everybody wins at home and losses on the road (with the exception of games at Marseille), Dortmund and Napoli are through. Arsenal’s in Europa League.
|Zenit St. Petersburg||3||1||1||1||2||3||-1||0-0-1||1-1-0||4||+1|
A five-point lead after three of six rounds is huge, but it looks even bigger when you see Atlético’s played two games on the road. They’ve also already hosted and beaten the group’s second place team and have taken three points from what was supposed to have been their most difficult road opponent (Porto). A win next round clinches a knockout round spot, while a draw in St. Petersburg between Zenit and Porto allows that same win to give Atlético the group’s top seed. They’re winning this group.
Zenit’s got the inside track on the second seed considering the back half of their schedule gives them both tough games at home. That increases the importance of Porto’s trip to Zenit – the teams’ next match. Zenit can take a commanding lead with a win, but even a draw will keep the Russians in control. Whereas Porto still has to go to the Vicente Calderon, Zenit gets Atlético at home.
This group’s sorting itself out as expected, with Barcelona and Milan drifting toward the group’s top seeds. The big danger for Milan will be a Celtic win over Ajax next round. If that happens, Milan may need a result in Glasgow to go through.
That sounds more ominous that it is. The scenario would require Celtic to win in Amsterdam before defeating Milan, and while each result in isolation is certainly possible, both results together becomes much more unlikely. Not to get all high school math on you, but if Celtic have a 60 percent change of winning their home game and a 40 percent chance of winning on the road (numbers I’ve made up out of thin air), they’re going to do both fewer than one time in four. Milan’s still in good shape.
Dec 13, 2013, 10:35 AM EST
David Moyes reveals RVP will face yet another spell on the sidelines after aggravating a thigh injury:
Dec 13, 2013, 9:22 AM EST
Gunners aim to go eight-points clear by winning at the Etihad, as Wenger plays it cool:
Dec 13, 2013, 8:52 AM EST
NBC News’ Ben Popken gets the lowdown on the new World Cup ball. Good news… a Jabulani, it is not:
Dec 12, 2013, 11:00 PM EST
Unless a player lifts his shirt over his head, you may never see Intel’s contribution to Barcelona’s uniforms.
Where They Stand: Europa League’s 32 knockout round teams (and their potential effect on UEFA’s coefficients)
Dec 12, 2013, 10:05 PM EST
Italy and Ukraine could see big boosts to their coefficients, with each federation placing four teams in Europa’s knockout rounds.
Dec 12, 2013, 9:04 PM EST
How close is PRP to blood doping? Close enough to get the Premier League’s attention.
Dec 12, 2013, 8:02 PM EST
The two-time Defender of the Year rejoins former Crew boss Sigi Schmid in Seattle.
Dec 12, 2013, 7:09 PM EST
The Dash join the Portland Thorns as MLS-backed teams in women’s league.
Dec 12, 2013, 6:17 PM EST
Recovery timeline could leave Portland winger passed over by Costa Rica.
Dec 12, 2013, 5:31 PM EST
Like other notable quality American outfielders (e.g. Clint Dempsey), Cameron is a late-developer who has really evolved.
Dec 12, 2013, 4:38 PM EST
D.C. United upgraded half their defense on Thursday. But what are they getting for the money?
Dec 12, 2013, 3:38 PM EST
We saw this coming. Portland traded up on Thursday to snare the former Zip.
Early approval: Klinsmann extends contract, will serve as U.S. head coach, technical director through 2018
Dec 12, 2013, 3:01 PM EST
Klinsmann’s signed up for another cycle, the U.S. hoping to extend its evolution beyond Brazil.
Dec 12, 2013, 2:01 PM EST
This marks the first time a Bundesliga club has played in the league’s summer showcase.
Dec 12, 2013, 1:05 PM EST
Two big questions this weekend: 1) Can Spurs stop Luis Suarez? and
2) Does City’s midfield rival that of Arsenal?
Dec 12, 2013, 10:26 AM EST
Everyone is entitled to their opinion, Young says, but “for me, the referees have made decisions and that’s it.”
Dec 12, 2013, 9:15 AM EST
Would Moyes really loan Zaha to a competitor like Everton or Newcastle?
Dec 12, 2013, 8:01 AM EST
When looking back at the biggest UK Twitter “surges” of 2013 there is one topic that dominates the landscape: footy.
Dec 11, 2013, 11:46 PM EST
You can’t been drawn against a team from your own federation – a rule that will hurt Arsenal, Manchester City on Monday.
Dec 11, 2013, 10:24 PM EST
The defenses need to get better in both places. A lot better:
- Manchester United’s Robin van Persie faces lengthy spell out 0
- Behind the Brazuca: NBC’s extensive research hints less “knuckle-ball” in Brazil, NASA agrees 1
- What could Chad Marshall bring to the Seattle Sounder defense? We’ll find out in 2014 3
- NWSL: Houston becomes second MLS franchise to place team in women’s professional league 3
- MLS Re-Entry Draft: As predicted, Portland find a way to get Steve Zakuani 4
- Early approval: Klinsmann extends contract, will serve as U.S. head coach, technical director through 2018 3
- 2014 World Cup Draw: Recapping the event (43)
- 2014 World Cup Draw: USA in Group of Death with Germany, Portugal, Ghana – Schedule, times, venues (34)
- Now that we know the U.S. opponents, which 23 players should Jurgen Klinsmann bring to Brazil? (21)
- U.S. national team discussion: The Alejandro Bedoya conundrum (16)
- Sporting Kansas City crowned 2013 MLS champions after 10 rounds of penalty kicks (16)
- Giovani: "We Were Over Criticized"
- Watch Out Netherlands! Chile-Clan Ain't Nothin' to Mess With!
- Messi on Safe Track to Full Recovery
- The Argentinian Armada, Favorites for Brazil 2014
- Brazil 2014: A Look At South America
- Arena de Amazonia: Host of USA vs CR7
- USA Will Advance in Brazil
- You Can't Beat German Sachlichkeit
- Aurelien Collin: I Think France is Very Very Happy
- Group B: No Walk In The Park