Dec 8, 2013, 9:44 PM EDT
KANSAS CITY, Kan. — The general mood around Real Salt Lake’s locker room after Saturday’s MLS Cup final was one that rued their missed chances. In addition to losing the title game in a 10-round penalty kick shootout, the team hit the woodwork three times in the match’s first 73 minutes. On a number of occasions, the Western Conference champions were within inches of avoiding extra time, even if their hosts seemed to generate more good chances over the match’s 120 minutes.
No doubt, had Robbie Findley or Javier Morales finished into their open nets in the 29th and 73rd minutes, Real Salt Lake could have been celebrating come minute 91, but to label those bad breaks is a little misleading. Perhaps this a bit pedantic, but there is a difference between bad luck and not finishing your chances, and when you miss an empty net, it’s the latter. Hitting the post isn’t bad luck. It’s a missed shot.
Likewise, attributing a shootout loss to bad luck is also slightly skewed. Just because the probability of winning a shootout might fall close to 50 percent doesn’t mean the “coin flip” analogy is a good one. When you toss a true coin in the air, you have no real control if it lands on heads or tails. Players do have some control over whether they make their penalty kicks, and while the nature of a shootout means we probably won’t get enough kicks to determine if one team is truly better than the other, the process almost always tells us which team took their five (or, in this case, 10) kicks better.
On Saturday, Sporting performed better in the shootout, and it wasn’t just luck. Álvaro Saborío and Lovel Palmer’s misses represented a lack of execution, while Jimmy Nielsen’s saves on Ned Grabavoy and Sebastian Velasquez were the combination of research, intuition, luck, and execution.
There were a couple of areas where factors beyond RSL’s control may have cost them. The weather (and its resulting influence on the surface) was a potential advantage for Sporting Kansas City, whose familiarity with the environment and turf appeared to help early. But in the second half, the conditions worked in Real Salt Lake’s favor, with Jimmy Nielsen unable to move effectively in a frozen south penalty box. The conditions could have differentiated the teams, but that’s not how it worked out.
Then there was the controversial second half non-call on Aurélien Collin, who was already carrying a yellow card. His takedown of Robbie Findley just before his game-tying goal would likely have drawn a caution under other circumstances; namely, if Collin wasn’t already in danger of being sent off. If you feel a yellow is a yellow regardless of the situation, Hilario Grajeda should have sent the Sporting defender off. Unfortunately (like it or not), you’ll have trouble finding an official who has such an unsympathetic implementation of the rules. Right or wrong, Collin stays on in that situation in almost any other postseason game.
So it’s unclear where Real Salt Lake suffered any bad luck. And although there were a couple of instances that could be described as bad breaks, the better terminology is missed opportunity. Real Salt Lake’s undoing on Saturday was their failure to make the most of their chances, not the coins flipping in Sporting’s favor.
Sporting didn’t win by much, but they did win in a way that transcended fortune or luck. They deserve the respect of having their performance acknowledged.
Sep 4, 2015, 12:37 PM EDT
We caught up with the man tasked with taking the USA to Rio.
Sep 4, 2015, 11:24 AM EDT
Who knew we could’ve settled this whole thing ages ago, just by asking smokers in England?
Sep 4, 2015, 9:49 AM EDT
Son scored in the 12th, 74th and 89th minutes of South Korea’s 8-0 win over Laos in AFC World Cup qualifying on Thursday.
Sep 4, 2015, 9:00 AM EDT
Week 27 is upon, and though international call-ups have decimated a number of teams, this weekend’s MLS action should still be decent.
Sep 4, 2015, 8:22 AM EDT
Perez says a move that should’ve taken an hour “took eight”, and blasted the Red Devils’ chairman by using examples from 2013.
Sep 4, 2015, 8:00 AM EDT
A 6-foot-4 American striker has Providence aiming for another College Cup, and U.S. Soccer fans on notice.
Sep 3, 2015, 9:39 PM EDT
As it turns out, Candy Crush was worth a lot of money. So much money, in fact, that Mel Morris bought his boyhood football club.
Sep 3, 2015, 8:37 PM EDT
The USMNT returns to action for the first time since finishing fourth at the 2015 Gold Cup. Their playoff vs. Mexico is 37 days away.
Sep 3, 2015, 6:45 PM EDT
This weekend, referees will begin dishing out green cards, which mean absolutely nothing.
Sep 3, 2015, 4:58 PM EDT
What did we learn from the young U.S. side at Deepdale?
Sep 3, 2015, 4:51 PM EDT
With Olympic qualifying less than a month away, final tune-ups are underway for the US U-23 squad.
Sep 3, 2015, 4:20 PM EDT
Jurgen Klinsmann’s latest comments confirm what we’ve assumed all along: he believes he is immune to criticism.
Sep 3, 2015, 2:00 PM EDT
Red Devils have ripped apart their title-winning team from 2013. Will things settle down anytime soon?
Sep 3, 2015, 1:10 PM EDT
Three options for the starting XI at RFK Stadium on Friday.
Sep 3, 2015, 12:07 PM EDT
JPW and Jenna dissect the Deadline Day dealings.
Sep 3, 2015, 11:20 AM EDT
German champs taking a stand to help the growing number of asylum seekers arriving in Munich.
Sep 3, 2015, 10:13 AM EDT
Who would’ve guessed it, the Gunners are short on strikers…
Sep 3, 2015, 9:36 AM EDT
After his game-winner from halfway last season, Cicerone is at it again.
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