Dec 8, 2013, 9:44 PM EDT
KANSAS CITY, Kan. — The general mood around Real Salt Lake’s locker room after Saturday’s MLS Cup final was one that rued their missed chances. In addition to losing the title game in a 10-round penalty kick shootout, the team hit the woodwork three times in the match’s first 73 minutes. On a number of occasions, the Western Conference champions were within inches of avoiding extra time, even if their hosts seemed to generate more good chances over the match’s 120 minutes.
No doubt, had Robbie Findley or Javier Morales finished into their open nets in the 29th and 73rd minutes, Real Salt Lake could have been celebrating come minute 91, but to label those bad breaks is a little misleading. Perhaps this a bit pedantic, but there is a difference between bad luck and not finishing your chances, and when you miss an empty net, it’s the latter. Hitting the post isn’t bad luck. It’s a missed shot.
Likewise, attributing a shootout loss to bad luck is also slightly skewed. Just because the probability of winning a shootout might fall close to 50 percent doesn’t mean the “coin flip” analogy is a good one. When you toss a true coin in the air, you have no real control if it lands on heads or tails. Players do have some control over whether they make their penalty kicks, and while the nature of a shootout means we probably won’t get enough kicks to determine if one team is truly better than the other, the process almost always tells us which team took their five (or, in this case, 10) kicks better.
On Saturday, Sporting performed better in the shootout, and it wasn’t just luck. Álvaro Saborío and Lovel Palmer’s misses represented a lack of execution, while Jimmy Nielsen’s saves on Ned Grabavoy and Sebastian Velasquez were the combination of research, intuition, luck, and execution.
There were a couple of areas where factors beyond RSL’s control may have cost them. The weather (and its resulting influence on the surface) was a potential advantage for Sporting Kansas City, whose familiarity with the environment and turf appeared to help early. But in the second half, the conditions worked in Real Salt Lake’s favor, with Jimmy Nielsen unable to move effectively in a frozen south penalty box. The conditions could have differentiated the teams, but that’s not how it worked out.
Then there was the controversial second half non-call on Aurélien Collin, who was already carrying a yellow card. His takedown of Robbie Findley just before his game-tying goal would likely have drawn a caution under other circumstances; namely, if Collin wasn’t already in danger of being sent off. If you feel a yellow is a yellow regardless of the situation, Hilario Grajeda should have sent the Sporting defender off. Unfortunately (like it or not), you’ll have trouble finding an official who has such an unsympathetic implementation of the rules. Right or wrong, Collin stays on in that situation in almost any other postseason game.
So it’s unclear where Real Salt Lake suffered any bad luck. And although there were a couple of instances that could be described as bad breaks, the better terminology is missed opportunity. Real Salt Lake’s undoing on Saturday was their failure to make the most of their chances, not the coins flipping in Sporting’s favor.
Sporting didn’t win by much, but they did win in a way that transcended fortune or luck. They deserve the respect of having their performance acknowledged.
Aug 2, 2015, 8:06 PM EDT
Xavi gets up for preseason friendlies, and in his first match for his new club, the 35-year-old rips a classic free kick.
Aug 2, 2015, 7:03 PM EDT
Diego Valeri missed a penalty as neither side could take advantage of its few big chances.
Aug 2, 2015, 6:36 PM EDT
It was a tough day for a number of Premier League teams who suffered losses and setbacks, most notably Mark Hughes and Stoke City.
Aug 2, 2015, 5:25 PM EDT
The 23-year-old midfielder has struggled with ankle problems in the past, and another has cropped up.
Aug 2, 2015, 5:00 PM EDT
Some big signings this summer and a new manager has fans excited for what could be this coming year.
Aug 2, 2015, 3:14 PM EDT
Tony Pulis is a hard-nosed leader, but unless Saido Berahino can repeat his goal-scoring year from last season, it will be a tough go for the Baggies.
Aug 2, 2015, 2:30 PM EDT
Take a bow, Benteke. Take a bow.
Jose Mourinho says “best team lost,” attacks Arsenal’s defensive tactics, as Chelsea beaten at their own game
Aug 2, 2015, 1:50 PM EDT
Chelsea boss hits out at Gunners as he loses to Wenger for first time in 14 attempts.
Aug 2, 2015, 1:07 PM EDT
The long-time spat between the managers of Arsenal and Chelsea rumbles on.
Aug 2, 2015, 12:45 PM EDT
Catch up on all the latest transfer rumors and gossip, right here.
Aug 2, 2015, 11:57 AM EDT
Wenger finally beats Mourinho, while the Blues have some issues up front.
Aug 2, 2015, 11:55 AM EDT
Arsenal takes claim to the Community Shield as Arsene Wenger has finally defeated Jose Mourinho.
Aug 2, 2015, 10:49 AM EDT
The Gunners took a 1-0 first half lead over Chelsea in the FA Community Shield thanks to a classy finish from Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain.
Aug 2, 2015, 10:04 AM EDT
In the City of Brotherly Love, it was only fitting that the Wright-Phillips boys led New York to a victory.
Aug 2, 2015, 9:07 AM EDT
There’s a legitimate chance that Roy Keane has never taken a picture with his cell phone.
Aug 2, 2015, 8:12 AM EDT
Manchester United’s Di Maria experiment is all but over, and it’s going to cost them $20 million.
Aug 2, 2015, 12:02 AM EDT
That’s 7 losses in 8 games for the Sounders. Meanwhile, the ‘Caps go top of the West.
Aug 1, 2015, 10:47 PM EDT
Another Royal Rumble between old rivals. While the rest of MLS went goal-crazy, these two did what they always do.
Aug 1, 2015, 9:33 PM EDT
The goals floweth over in MLS tonight. Cyle Larin scored his second straight brace for Orlando City.
Aug 1, 2015, 9:11 PM EDT
D.C. United and RSL combined for 10 goals at RFK Stadium Saturday night. Let the video do the talking.
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