Dec 8, 2013, 9:44 PM EDT
KANSAS CITY, Kan. — The general mood around Real Salt Lake’s locker room after Saturday’s MLS Cup final was one that rued their missed chances. In addition to losing the title game in a 10-round penalty kick shootout, the team hit the woodwork three times in the match’s first 73 minutes. On a number of occasions, the Western Conference champions were within inches of avoiding extra time, even if their hosts seemed to generate more good chances over the match’s 120 minutes.
No doubt, had Robbie Findley or Javier Morales finished into their open nets in the 29th and 73rd minutes, Real Salt Lake could have been celebrating come minute 91, but to label those bad breaks is a little misleading. Perhaps this a bit pedantic, but there is a difference between bad luck and not finishing your chances, and when you miss an empty net, it’s the latter. Hitting the post isn’t bad luck. It’s a missed shot.
Likewise, attributing a shootout loss to bad luck is also slightly skewed. Just because the probability of winning a shootout might fall close to 50 percent doesn’t mean the “coin flip” analogy is a good one. When you toss a true coin in the air, you have no real control if it lands on heads or tails. Players do have some control over whether they make their penalty kicks, and while the nature of a shootout means we probably won’t get enough kicks to determine if one team is truly better than the other, the process almost always tells us which team took their five (or, in this case, 10) kicks better.
On Saturday, Sporting performed better in the shootout, and it wasn’t just luck. Álvaro Saborío and Lovel Palmer’s misses represented a lack of execution, while Jimmy Nielsen’s saves on Ned Grabavoy and Sebastian Velasquez were the combination of research, intuition, luck, and execution.
There were a couple of areas where factors beyond RSL’s control may have cost them. The weather (and its resulting influence on the surface) was a potential advantage for Sporting Kansas City, whose familiarity with the environment and turf appeared to help early. But in the second half, the conditions worked in Real Salt Lake’s favor, with Jimmy Nielsen unable to move effectively in a frozen south penalty box. The conditions could have differentiated the teams, but that’s not how it worked out.
Then there was the controversial second half non-call on Aurélien Collin, who was already carrying a yellow card. His takedown of Robbie Findley just before his game-tying goal would likely have drawn a caution under other circumstances; namely, if Collin wasn’t already in danger of being sent off. If you feel a yellow is a yellow regardless of the situation, Hilario Grajeda should have sent the Sporting defender off. Unfortunately (like it or not), you’ll have trouble finding an official who has such an unsympathetic implementation of the rules. Right or wrong, Collin stays on in that situation in almost any other postseason game.
So it’s unclear where Real Salt Lake suffered any bad luck. And although there were a couple of instances that could be described as bad breaks, the better terminology is missed opportunity. Real Salt Lake’s undoing on Saturday was their failure to make the most of their chances, not the coins flipping in Sporting’s favor.
Sporting didn’t win by much, but they did win in a way that transcended fortune or luck. They deserve the respect of having their performance acknowledged.
Apr 18, 2015, 2:36 PM EDT
Here’s what we learned from Chelsea’s narrow win over United.
Apr 18, 2015, 2:28 PM EDT
United stays third, one point behind second-place Arsenal.
Apr 18, 2015, 2:13 PM EDT
Arsenal had 71 percent possession as late as the 80th minute, but the score remained deadlocked at one.
Apr 18, 2015, 1:52 PM EDT
Have Saints’ faint top four hopes been all but ended?
Apr 18, 2015, 1:25 PM EDT
Hear what the Foxes’ boss had to say about Leicester’s big win.
Apr 18, 2015, 12:06 PM EDT
Potters stage second half comeback to stun Saints.
Apr 18, 2015, 11:59 AM EDT
Palace’s table charge is momentarily halted, as Alan Pardew’s boys sit 11th with 42 points.
Apr 18, 2015, 11:57 AM EDT
Toffees five unbeaten, send Clarets bottom of the table.
Apr 18, 2015, 11:53 AM EDT
Leicester is even with 17th place Hull on points and a single point behind Sunderland, with a match in hand on both.
Apr 18, 2015, 11:40 AM EDT
James Morrison had scored in the second minute for the Baggies’ first tally.
Apr 18, 2015, 11:34 AM EDT
It’s a big one, folks, with the two of the Premier League’s best tangling at Stamford Bridge.
Apr 18, 2015, 11:17 AM EDT
The FA has switched things around and will still give the kid a chance to walk onto the Wembley pitch before an upcoming England match.
Apr 18, 2015, 10:49 AM EDT
Set piece goals are the name of a pair of early games, as four Premier League matches dot the weekend landscape. Live stream link inside.
Apr 18, 2015, 9:31 AM EDT
Bafetimbi Gomis is out for Swansea City, putting more focus on Ki Sung-yeung and Gylfi Sigurdsson.
Apr 18, 2015, 9:24 AM EDT
Crystal Palace has been humming, with Yannick Bolasie coming off a hat trick for the Eagles.
Apr 18, 2015, 9:20 AM EDT
Can high-flying Saints keep the top four hopes alive with a win at the Brit? Watch live online.
Apr 18, 2015, 9:17 AM EDT
Can the Toffees go five games unbeaten? Watch them take on the Clarets live online, here.
Apr 18, 2015, 8:20 AM EDT
“The Special One” is fueling the fire ahead of Saturday’s massive clash vs. United.
Apr 18, 2015, 7:30 AM EDT
Where and how to watch every single PL game live online or via the app during Week 33.
Apr 17, 2015, 11:40 PM EDT
Storylines ahead of FA Cup semifinal clashes.
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