Dec 8, 2013, 9:44 PM EDT
KANSAS CITY, Kan. — The general mood around Real Salt Lake’s locker room after Saturday’s MLS Cup final was one that rued their missed chances. In addition to losing the title game in a 10-round penalty kick shootout, the team hit the woodwork three times in the match’s first 73 minutes. On a number of occasions, the Western Conference champions were within inches of avoiding extra time, even if their hosts seemed to generate more good chances over the match’s 120 minutes.
No doubt, had Robbie Findley or Javier Morales finished into their open nets in the 29th and 73rd minutes, Real Salt Lake could have been celebrating come minute 91, but to label those bad breaks is a little misleading. Perhaps this a bit pedantic, but there is a difference between bad luck and not finishing your chances, and when you miss an empty net, it’s the latter. Hitting the post isn’t bad luck. It’s a missed shot.
Likewise, attributing a shootout loss to bad luck is also slightly skewed. Just because the probability of winning a shootout might fall close to 50 percent doesn’t mean the “coin flip” analogy is a good one. When you toss a true coin in the air, you have no real control if it lands on heads or tails. Players do have some control over whether they make their penalty kicks, and while the nature of a shootout means we probably won’t get enough kicks to determine if one team is truly better than the other, the process almost always tells us which team took their five (or, in this case, 10) kicks better.
On Saturday, Sporting performed better in the shootout, and it wasn’t just luck. Álvaro Saborío and Lovel Palmer’s misses represented a lack of execution, while Jimmy Nielsen’s saves on Ned Grabavoy and Sebastian Velasquez were the combination of research, intuition, luck, and execution.
There were a couple of areas where factors beyond RSL’s control may have cost them. The weather (and its resulting influence on the surface) was a potential advantage for Sporting Kansas City, whose familiarity with the environment and turf appeared to help early. But in the second half, the conditions worked in Real Salt Lake’s favor, with Jimmy Nielsen unable to move effectively in a frozen south penalty box. The conditions could have differentiated the teams, but that’s not how it worked out.
Then there was the controversial second half non-call on Aurélien Collin, who was already carrying a yellow card. His takedown of Robbie Findley just before his game-tying goal would likely have drawn a caution under other circumstances; namely, if Collin wasn’t already in danger of being sent off. If you feel a yellow is a yellow regardless of the situation, Hilario Grajeda should have sent the Sporting defender off. Unfortunately (like it or not), you’ll have trouble finding an official who has such an unsympathetic implementation of the rules. Right or wrong, Collin stays on in that situation in almost any other postseason game.
So it’s unclear where Real Salt Lake suffered any bad luck. And although there were a couple of instances that could be described as bad breaks, the better terminology is missed opportunity. Real Salt Lake’s undoing on Saturday was their failure to make the most of their chances, not the coins flipping in Sporting’s favor.
Sporting didn’t win by much, but they did win in a way that transcended fortune or luck. They deserve the respect of having their performance acknowledged.
May 28, 2015, 12:53 AM EDT
Juninho’s early PK is all the Galaxy need, as they climb to 4th in the Western Conference. RSL, meanwhile, are on the outside looking in.
May 28, 2015, 12:43 AM EDT
17 MLS teams will entire this year’s US Open Cup in the 4th round. On Wednesday, they learned who they’ll face.
May 28, 2015, 12:30 AM EDT
Wins in May don’t get much more “must-win” than this one. PDX tops the East’s top team.
May 27, 2015, 8:15 PM EDT
According to his agent, Balotelli is going nowhere this summer. He’ll stay and fight for his place next season.
May 27, 2015, 6:15 PM EDT
11 current and former officials from around the world have been provisionally banned from all football-related activities.
May 27, 2015, 5:23 PM EDT
Rog and Davo relive the Premier League’s season finale, including squeaky bum time at the bottom of the table.
May 27, 2015, 4:42 PM EDT
It was a thrilling Europa League final. Sevilla are back-to-back Europa League champions, and into next year’s Champions League.
May 27, 2015, 4:32 PM EDT
Sergio Aguero was the Premier League’s top goalscorer this season, but was he the best attacker in the league? He has plenty of competition.
May 27, 2015, 3:23 PM EDT
After leading the Black Cats to Premier League safety, “The Little General” has announced he won’t return to the Stadium of Light next season.
May 27, 2015, 3:00 PM EDT
Goal scorers, goal creators, ball winners, possession destroyers — the list of top-10 midfielders has a little bit of everything.
May 27, 2015, 2:43 PM EDT
“Today’s events are a disaster for FIFA and tarnish the image of football as a whole. “
May 27, 2015, 2:17 PM EDT
The most controversial figure in world soccer has broken his silence.
May 27, 2015, 2:08 PM EDT
If Aston Villa wants any shot at beating Arsenal in the FA Cup final this Saturday, Christian Benteke must come up big.
May 27, 2015, 1:06 PM EDT
“This really is the World Cup of fraud, and today we are issuing FIFA a red card.”
May 27, 2015, 12:00 PM EDT
With the Hoops heading down to the Championship, Queens Park Rangers will have a completely new look next season.
May 27, 2015, 11:10 AM EDT
They say defense wins championships, so expect to see quite a bit of Chelsea blue on this list.
May 27, 2015, 10:31 AM EDT
Atsu spent this season on loan at Everton, and it looks like the Ghanaian will be headed south to the Premier League’s newest club.
May 27, 2015, 9:40 AM EDT
Sepp Blatter has served as president for 17 years and is expected to easily win reelection.
May 27, 2015, 9:00 AM EDT
Let’s take a walk through the six yard box with the Premier League’s 10 best ‘keepers for 2014-15.
May 27, 2015, 8:30 AM EDT
A press conference is scheduled to be held at 10:30 a.m. ET from the U.S. Department of Justice.
- FIFA ethics committee bans 11 current, former officials from all football-related activities 3
- UEFA calls for postponement of FIFA presidential election, threatens to boycott congress 5
- FIFA president Sepp Blatter releases first statement since overnight arrests 11
- Three things we learned from the US Department of Justice news conference on the FIFA investigation 6
- FIFA presidential elections will go on Friday despite arrests 6
- FBI, US Department of Justice issues damning statement on FIFA, details corruption investigation 8