Dec 8, 2013, 9:44 PM EDT
KANSAS CITY, Kan. — The general mood around Real Salt Lake’s locker room after Saturday’s MLS Cup final was one that rued their missed chances. In addition to losing the title game in a 10-round penalty kick shootout, the team hit the woodwork three times in the match’s first 73 minutes. On a number of occasions, the Western Conference champions were within inches of avoiding extra time, even if their hosts seemed to generate more good chances over the match’s 120 minutes.
No doubt, had Robbie Findley or Javier Morales finished into their open nets in the 29th and 73rd minutes, Real Salt Lake could have been celebrating come minute 91, but to label those bad breaks is a little misleading. Perhaps this a bit pedantic, but there is a difference between bad luck and not finishing your chances, and when you miss an empty net, it’s the latter. Hitting the post isn’t bad luck. It’s a missed shot.
Likewise, attributing a shootout loss to bad luck is also slightly skewed. Just because the probability of winning a shootout might fall close to 50 percent doesn’t mean the “coin flip” analogy is a good one. When you toss a true coin in the air, you have no real control if it lands on heads or tails. Players do have some control over whether they make their penalty kicks, and while the nature of a shootout means we probably won’t get enough kicks to determine if one team is truly better than the other, the process almost always tells us which team took their five (or, in this case, 10) kicks better.
On Saturday, Sporting performed better in the shootout, and it wasn’t just luck. Álvaro Saborío and Lovel Palmer’s misses represented a lack of execution, while Jimmy Nielsen’s saves on Ned Grabavoy and Sebastian Velasquez were the combination of research, intuition, luck, and execution.
There were a couple of areas where factors beyond RSL’s control may have cost them. The weather (and its resulting influence on the surface) was a potential advantage for Sporting Kansas City, whose familiarity with the environment and turf appeared to help early. But in the second half, the conditions worked in Real Salt Lake’s favor, with Jimmy Nielsen unable to move effectively in a frozen south penalty box. The conditions could have differentiated the teams, but that’s not how it worked out.
Then there was the controversial second half non-call on Aurélien Collin, who was already carrying a yellow card. His takedown of Robbie Findley just before his game-tying goal would likely have drawn a caution under other circumstances; namely, if Collin wasn’t already in danger of being sent off. If you feel a yellow is a yellow regardless of the situation, Hilario Grajeda should have sent the Sporting defender off. Unfortunately (like it or not), you’ll have trouble finding an official who has such an unsympathetic implementation of the rules. Right or wrong, Collin stays on in that situation in almost any other postseason game.
So it’s unclear where Real Salt Lake suffered any bad luck. And although there were a couple of instances that could be described as bad breaks, the better terminology is missed opportunity. Real Salt Lake’s undoing on Saturday was their failure to make the most of their chances, not the coins flipping in Sporting’s favor.
Sporting didn’t win by much, but they did win in a way that transcended fortune or luck. They deserve the respect of having their performance acknowledged.
Oct 21, 2014, 11:10 PM EDT
“On behalf of the club, I would like to apologise to the QPR supporters for the embarrassment this has caused,” Fernandes wrote.
Oct 21, 2014, 10:15 PM EDT
Who scored the best goal in Tuesday’s Champions League action?
Oct 21, 2014, 9:00 PM EDT
Oct 21, 2014, 8:15 PM EDT
One hopes Agudelo’s story will resonate with Jurgen Klinsmann.
Oct 21, 2014, 7:15 PM EDT
“It might be something I regret down the line for not challenging myself,” said Gerrard.
Oct 21, 2014, 5:50 PM EDT
The players will shell out over $90,000 to cover the cost of the traveling fans.
Oct 21, 2014, 5:10 PM EDT
40 goals were scored in eight games on Tuesday, as Groups E-H exploded into life.
Oct 21, 2014, 5:01 PM EDT
A sensational ending to a sensational performance by Hazard and Chelsea as a whole.
Oct 21, 2014, 4:35 PM EDT
When Bayern Munich are firing on all cylinders, they are scary, scary sight.
Oct 21, 2014, 3:49 PM EDT
Unlucky for Maribor. Comfortable for Chelsea.
Oct 21, 2014, 3:42 PM EDT
Groups E-H are in action on Wednesday in Europe as eight games take place, and there are some gaudy score lines after just 45 minutes.
Oct 21, 2014, 3:36 PM EDT
It’s an absolute shellacking going into half-time with Bayern giving a masterclass display in Roma.
Oct 21, 2014, 3:00 PM EDT
It’s the right move for Philly, especially given the man management shown by Curtin.
Oct 21, 2014, 2:48 PM EDT
Pellegrini defiant despite City blowing a 2-0 lead in Moscow.
Oct 21, 2014, 2:07 PM EDT
Missing Koscielny is a far bigger blow than having to start a 22-year-old, though.
Oct 21, 2014, 2:01 PM EDT
City chuck away 2-0 lead in Russian capital, as UCL hopes hang in the balance.
Oct 21, 2014, 1:21 PM EDT
We’re going to have to have a talk about the presupposed power of the superior West at some point soon.
Oct 21, 2014, 12:58 PM EDT
City storming towards their first UCL win of the season in snowy Moscow.
Oct 21, 2014, 11:40 AM EDT
Is it enough to tip the scales for Liverpool, or will one of Real’s bevy of offensive stars step in to help stop the Reds’ European hopes?
Oct 21, 2014, 10:47 AM EDT
A final week La Liga match in 2011 has been under investigation for a while, and now former Real Zaragoza player Herrera is under scrutiny.
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