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Advanced stats project Premier League battle for Top 4 and survival spots to go down to final weekend

Feb 13, 2014, 6:52 PM EDT

Chelsea v Manchester City - Premier League Getty Images

The races for the Premier League title, Champions League spots and top flight survival will come down to the season’s very last weekend.

At least according to a computer.

Bloomberg Sports is a web site that deals in projected tables. It details the odds that a team finishes in a particular spot, not unlike the similar Sportsclubstats.com site, but also uses unique algorithms based on past performance, transfer activity and other knowledge to predict where a team will finish.

So, you ask, who’s in the best shape to hold the honors? Well, it’d be classless not to tell you to explore the site itself, but some nuggets from the projected “final table”:

– Chelsea is expected to edge out Manchester City by a point to win the PL title. It’s even tighter, less than a point of probability, but in reality they obviously don’t deal out half-points in soccer.

– Arsenal drops to third, joining Liverpool to round out the Top Four.

– Cardiff City and Fulham remain in the bottom two, but it’s Norwich that fares the worst in projections, dropping three spots in the table from where they stand now to join the Bluebirds and Cottagers in a trip down to the Championship. Crystal Palace and Sunderland will not be safe entering the final weekend.

In Europe, Bayern Munich, Barcelona and Real Madrid are unsurprising favorites to win the Champions League. La Liga sees Barcelona needing the final weekend to pip Real Madrid while Atletico says goodbye to the Top Two in the penultimate week. Bayern, PSG and Juventus hold up the rest of the way as league winners as well.

What’s it all mean? Nothing, really. There are educated guesses, and then there are human elements like Kolo Toure’s own goal. It didn’t cost Liverpool points, but it sure can’t be predicted (regardless of what his critics say).

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