Feb 19, 2014, 3:04 AM EST
It’s not just that Milan has struggled all season, their 10th place standing in Serie A a testament to the club’s most disappointing seasons in 15 years. It’s the fact that they matchup particularly poorly against Atlético Madrid, a team as comfortable without the ball as with. For a Rossoneri side strong in possession but weak in defense — a team that’s had trouble keeping goals off the scoresheet against capable counter attackers Napoli and Juventus (allowing eight in three games) — it’s a potential recipe for a landslide. As a Milan team that’s had trouble converting possession into goals presses for a home result, Atlético forwards Diego Costa and David Villa will get their chances against central defenders Adil Rami and Cristian Zaccardo.
Given how Atlético’s performed for most of this season, that’s how this game should play out, but in light of the Rojiblancos’ recent slide, the extent to which ‘most of this season’ applies is open to debate. Through the beginning of February, Atlético had only lost once all season. Then, in the span of eight days, Atleti lost three times: twice to Real Madrid; once to Almería. Though they bounced back this weekend with a 3-0 win over Valladolid (scoring twice in the first four minutes), 90 minutes weren’t enough to answer all questions. Has the Atlético that blew through the first five months of this season returned, or has February brought them back to earth?
If February’s Atlético is not the same team that tore through fall, Milan has reason to think they can advance. Though they have not been convincing since Clarence Seedorf took over for Max Allegri as head coach on Jan. 16, the team has improved, enough so that talents like Mario Balotelli and Kaká could craft a tie-turning goal if needed. If Atletico are closer to Milan’s level than they appeared this fall, the Rossoneri can play for that one crucial goal. They can play a possession game that waits (rather than pushes) for openings, trusting that a 180-minute game will produce at least one opportunity.
That’s Milan’s best hope, but consider the odds of that situation coming to fruition. In the six months since the 2013-14 season started, Atlético has had one back week. While that week has come relatively recently, it’s also been put into the near past by the team’s weekend result against Valladolid. What are the odds that, over this two-leg tie, Atlético will regress to that poor form? And what are the odds Diego Simeone’s team will play as they have throughout the other five-plus months of the season?
The only argument that sees Milan as a realistic threat relies on the irrelevant: history. With seven European titles, Milan is European elite, a status the means nothing come kickoff on Wednesday. While those results may translate into faith among the fanbase and some belief within the team, they also say nothing about the capabilities of the current squad. Better measures of Milan’s potential to upset Atlético are this year’s results, few of which recommend the Rossoneri as potential quarterfinalists.
Even if with midfield linchpin Tiago and left back Felipe Luis unlikely to play, Atlético should be considered heavy favorites to advance. The principles that allowed them to join Barcelona and Real Madrid in Spain’s title race will still be evident on the field. Consistently able to outwork opponents without unduly exposing themselves, Atlético has developed a way to match up with almost any team in the world, their faith in their own effort making them a dark house in both Spain and Europe.
Whether Milan can match their effort will depend on the Atlético that shows up at the San Siro. If it’s the team that struggled throughout the middle of February, the Rossoneri can claim a result. If it’s the team that’s defined Atlético’s 2013-14 surge, Milan will be out of their league.
Feb 28, 2015, 11:11 PM EST
18 teams in 13 games to wrap up the 2015 MLS preseason. Your one-stop shop for all the day’s action.
Feb 28, 2015, 9:29 PM EST
As they say, that ball stayed hit.
Feb 28, 2015, 8:55 PM EST
Forget the performance, all John Carver cares about is the three points. Sometimes that’s how it is.
Feb 28, 2015, 7:45 PM EST
Dyke’s frustrated at the resistance to even explore and experiment with technological aids, and he’s 100% right to be.
Feb 28, 2015, 6:27 PM EST
The top of the Championship is as tight as it’s ever been. With only three spots to come up, who’ll be in the Premier League next year?
Feb 28, 2015, 6:04 PM EST
Barcelona keep Spain’s title race close, while AC Milan just hope to finish inside Italy’s top-half.
Feb 28, 2015, 4:43 PM EST
Can Sherwood do the trick, or will his loud ways alienate a club hoping to avoid its first ever trip into the Championship?
Feb 28, 2015, 4:33 PM EST
The Real Madrid outcast scored his ninth, 10th, 11th and 12th goals of the season in pushing Rayo Vallecano into 10th place.
Feb 28, 2015, 4:18 PM EST
It’s goal No. 1 of many for TFC’s $30-million man. Credit to TFC’s other $35-million and $25-million men for the fancy build-up.
Feb 28, 2015, 3:45 PM EST
Both sides of Merseyside are in action against a pair of Top Three contenders as the Premier League sends up two great appetizers.
Feb 28, 2015, 3:11 PM EST
Bayern made 577 more passes than its opponents. That’s bonkers.
Feb 28, 2015, 2:20 PM EST
Koeman’s Saints have scored just once in their last five matches. Can they recover and remain in the top six?
Feb 28, 2015, 2:00 PM EST
Facey, 20, was the captain of Man City’s highly-touted Elite Development Squad and had been on trial with NYCFC since early January.
Feb 28, 2015, 1:30 PM EST
Recaps, analysis, videos and more from the six PL games on Saturday.
Feb 28, 2015, 12:52 PM EST
With an edge on Man City in the UCL and second place to Real Madrid in La Liga, Barca has a chance to do big things if it continues to click.
Feb 28, 2015, 12:33 PM EST
With RVP out injured and Falcao firing blanks, surely Rooney should remain up front…
Feb 28, 2015, 12:10 PM EST
The giant Englishman scored less than a minute after subbing on for Mame Diouf, and Stoke stayed in the top half.
Feb 28, 2015, 12:09 PM EST
Saints fire another blank, as Baggies break them down.
Feb 28, 2015, 12:03 PM EST
The three points moved Swansea ahead of West Ham for eight in the Premier League table.
Feb 28, 2015, 11:57 AM EST
Rooney’s double sees off a stubborn Sunderland side to cement United’s spot in the top four.
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