Feb 19, 2014, 3:04 AM EDT
It’s not just that Milan has struggled all season, their 10th place standing in Serie A a testament to the club’s most disappointing seasons in 15 years. It’s the fact that they matchup particularly poorly against Atlético Madrid, a team as comfortable without the ball as with. For a Rossoneri side strong in possession but weak in defense — a team that’s had trouble keeping goals off the scoresheet against capable counter attackers Napoli and Juventus (allowing eight in three games) — it’s a potential recipe for a landslide. As a Milan team that’s had trouble converting possession into goals presses for a home result, Atlético forwards Diego Costa and David Villa will get their chances against central defenders Adil Rami and Cristian Zaccardo.
Given how Atlético’s performed for most of this season, that’s how this game should play out, but in light of the Rojiblancos’ recent slide, the extent to which ‘most of this season’ applies is open to debate. Through the beginning of February, Atlético had only lost once all season. Then, in the span of eight days, Atleti lost three times: twice to Real Madrid; once to Almería. Though they bounced back this weekend with a 3-0 win over Valladolid (scoring twice in the first four minutes), 90 minutes weren’t enough to answer all questions. Has the Atlético that blew through the first five months of this season returned, or has February brought them back to earth?
If February’s Atlético is not the same team that tore through fall, Milan has reason to think they can advance. Though they have not been convincing since Clarence Seedorf took over for Max Allegri as head coach on Jan. 16, the team has improved, enough so that talents like Mario Balotelli and Kaká could craft a tie-turning goal if needed. If Atletico are closer to Milan’s level than they appeared this fall, the Rossoneri can play for that one crucial goal. They can play a possession game that waits (rather than pushes) for openings, trusting that a 180-minute game will produce at least one opportunity.
That’s Milan’s best hope, but consider the odds of that situation coming to fruition. In the six months since the 2013-14 season started, Atlético has had one back week. While that week has come relatively recently, it’s also been put into the near past by the team’s weekend result against Valladolid. What are the odds that, over this two-leg tie, Atlético will regress to that poor form? And what are the odds Diego Simeone’s team will play as they have throughout the other five-plus months of the season?
The only argument that sees Milan as a realistic threat relies on the irrelevant: history. With seven European titles, Milan is European elite, a status the means nothing come kickoff on Wednesday. While those results may translate into faith among the fanbase and some belief within the team, they also say nothing about the capabilities of the current squad. Better measures of Milan’s potential to upset Atlético are this year’s results, few of which recommend the Rossoneri as potential quarterfinalists.
Even if with midfield linchpin Tiago and left back Felipe Luis unlikely to play, Atlético should be considered heavy favorites to advance. The principles that allowed them to join Barcelona and Real Madrid in Spain’s title race will still be evident on the field. Consistently able to outwork opponents without unduly exposing themselves, Atlético has developed a way to match up with almost any team in the world, their faith in their own effort making them a dark house in both Spain and Europe.
Whether Milan can match their effort will depend on the Atlético that shows up at the San Siro. If it’s the team that struggled throughout the middle of February, the Rossoneri can claim a result. If it’s the team that’s defined Atlético’s 2013-14 surge, Milan will be out of their league.
Jul 6, 2015, 8:17 PM EDT
Will Abby Wambach play at the 2016 Olympics in Rio? She hasn’t yet said.
Jul 6, 2015, 7:20 PM EDT
The goalkeeper’s agent has said Casillas would like a move to Portugal, but Real is playing hardball.
Jul 6, 2015, 6:26 PM EDT
In the world of South American football, everything is coming up Chile.
Jul 6, 2015, 5:31 PM EDT
After a failed spell at Tottenham, the French midfielder is now a Hornet.
Jul 6, 2015, 4:37 PM EDT
The Gold Cup kicks off tomorrow as Jurgen Klinsmann and the USMNT look to repeat as champions of CONCACAF.
Jul 6, 2015, 3:43 PM EDT
A strange clause in the contract allows Barca to sell the midfielder back to Atletico by July 20.
Jul 6, 2015, 3:22 PM EDT
Like the heavily-redacted Garcia report, you can’t help but think we won’t have details until we’re watching the court cases and trials of the arraigned.
Jul 6, 2015, 2:19 PM EDT
The striker has signed a three-year deal with the second division side.
Jul 6, 2015, 1:46 PM EDT
The Cosmos B can afford to trot out Nash, considering they are 8-0-1 with a plus-34 goal differential under head coach Alecko Eskandarian.
Jul 6, 2015, 1:09 PM EDT
Plenty of other names are having a waltz through the gossip mill.
Jul 6, 2015, 11:01 AM EDT
Pirlo says an American arrival has been in the cards for a while.
Jul 6, 2015, 10:21 AM EDT
Your move, NYCFC.com. Surely the MLS side is not pleased by the “leak” of the widely-speculated signing, but we bet it’s pretty jazzed to have Pirlo.
Jul 6, 2015, 9:51 AM EDT
Plenty more flag-waving winners, emotional players, and post-World Cup couple smooches leap off the Women’s World Cup wire. Shall we look at a few?
Jul 6, 2015, 9:17 AM EDT
The U.S. women are World Cup champions for the third time thanks to a full team effort that belied its star-first reputation.
Jul 6, 2015, 8:23 AM EDT
CONCACAF lawyer Sam Gandhi’s tone hits all the right conciliatory notes, something that FIFA has been unable to do it in its response under Sepp Blatter.
Jul 6, 2015, 7:57 AM EDT
Despite the love heaped on Clyne and Ryan Bertrand last season, Alderweireld was perhaps only second to Jose Fonte in the Saints’ defensive performance pecking order.
Jul 6, 2015, 6:24 AM EDT
McIlroy looks highly unlikely to be teeing it up at St. Andrews in 10 days time.
Jul 6, 2015, 3:06 AM EDT
The U.S. women always said they would peak at the right moment, and they did exactly that.
Jul 6, 2015, 2:41 AM EDT
Japan came out shockingly flat in the World Cup final, conceding four goals in 16 minutes.
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