Feb 19, 2014, 3:04 AM EDT
It’s not just that Milan has struggled all season, their 10th place standing in Serie A a testament to the club’s most disappointing seasons in 15 years. It’s the fact that they matchup particularly poorly against Atlético Madrid, a team as comfortable without the ball as with. For a Rossoneri side strong in possession but weak in defense — a team that’s had trouble keeping goals off the scoresheet against capable counter attackers Napoli and Juventus (allowing eight in three games) — it’s a potential recipe for a landslide. As a Milan team that’s had trouble converting possession into goals presses for a home result, Atlético forwards Diego Costa and David Villa will get their chances against central defenders Adil Rami and Cristian Zaccardo.
Given how Atlético’s performed for most of this season, that’s how this game should play out, but in light of the Rojiblancos’ recent slide, the extent to which ‘most of this season’ applies is open to debate. Through the beginning of February, Atlético had only lost once all season. Then, in the span of eight days, Atleti lost three times: twice to Real Madrid; once to Almería. Though they bounced back this weekend with a 3-0 win over Valladolid (scoring twice in the first four minutes), 90 minutes weren’t enough to answer all questions. Has the Atlético that blew through the first five months of this season returned, or has February brought them back to earth?
If February’s Atlético is not the same team that tore through fall, Milan has reason to think they can advance. Though they have not been convincing since Clarence Seedorf took over for Max Allegri as head coach on Jan. 16, the team has improved, enough so that talents like Mario Balotelli and Kaká could craft a tie-turning goal if needed. If Atletico are closer to Milan’s level than they appeared this fall, the Rossoneri can play for that one crucial goal. They can play a possession game that waits (rather than pushes) for openings, trusting that a 180-minute game will produce at least one opportunity.
That’s Milan’s best hope, but consider the odds of that situation coming to fruition. In the six months since the 2013-14 season started, Atlético has had one back week. While that week has come relatively recently, it’s also been put into the near past by the team’s weekend result against Valladolid. What are the odds that, over this two-leg tie, Atlético will regress to that poor form? And what are the odds Diego Simeone’s team will play as they have throughout the other five-plus months of the season?
The only argument that sees Milan as a realistic threat relies on the irrelevant: history. With seven European titles, Milan is European elite, a status the means nothing come kickoff on Wednesday. While those results may translate into faith among the fanbase and some belief within the team, they also say nothing about the capabilities of the current squad. Better measures of Milan’s potential to upset Atlético are this year’s results, few of which recommend the Rossoneri as potential quarterfinalists.
Even if with midfield linchpin Tiago and left back Felipe Luis unlikely to play, Atlético should be considered heavy favorites to advance. The principles that allowed them to join Barcelona and Real Madrid in Spain’s title race will still be evident on the field. Consistently able to outwork opponents without unduly exposing themselves, Atlético has developed a way to match up with almost any team in the world, their faith in their own effort making them a dark house in both Spain and Europe.
Whether Milan can match their effort will depend on the Atlético that shows up at the San Siro. If it’s the team that struggled throughout the middle of February, the Rossoneri can claim a result. If it’s the team that’s defined Atlético’s 2013-14 surge, Milan will be out of their league.
Sep 1, 2015, 8:19 PM EDT
Considering Premier League teams spent more than $1.3 billion on transfers this summer, it’s quite the list.
Sep 1, 2015, 6:30 PM EDT
We all thought they would happen, but with the transfer window now closed, we’re left scratching our heads.
Sep 1, 2015, 5:34 PM EDT
Clear your schedule at 7 p.m. ET for two hours of coverage detailing a wild and crazy Deadline Day in the Premier League. Watch live on NBCSN or online, right here.
Sep 1, 2015, 4:24 PM EDT
Take a look at every transfer made in the Premier League on a wild and crazy Deadline Day.
Sep 1, 2015, 3:32 PM EDT
The former Tottenham man spent the end of last season on loan at Goodison Park, and now the move has been made permanent.
Sep 1, 2015, 3:15 PM EDT
The winger was flown into Leicester on the owner’s helicopter as a last minute signing for the Foxes.
Sep 1, 2015, 2:55 PM EDT
Let’s hope these guys match up in the UEFA Champions League, where time can be kept on the field.
Sep 1, 2015, 2:50 PM EDT
PST’s Lead Writer and Editor gives each team a grade after a busy summer in the transfer market.
Sep 1, 2015, 2:09 PM EDT
West Bromwich Albion chairman Jeremy Peace is speaking out on the Saido Berahino saga at the Hawthorns.
Sep 1, 2015, 1:37 PM EDT
Frustrated at Fulham, American teen Emerson Hyndman looks set to stay at Craven Cottage through the final year of his contract.
Sep 1, 2015, 1:10 PM EDT
Hector earned his first six caps for the Reggae Boyz and participated in all three of Jamaica’s matches at the Copa America in Chile.
Sep 1, 2015, 12:45 PM EDT
The captain of Algeria, a veteran of Colombia and a Belgian U-21 player are heading to the Premier League side at Vicarage Road.
Sep 1, 2015, 12:35 PM EDT
Young striker is not happy at all as Baggies continue to block Spurs’ advances.
Sep 1, 2015, 12:16 PM EDT
French forward becomes most expensive teenager in world soccer history.
Sep 1, 2015, 12:03 PM EDT
Yedlin joins American prospect Lynden Gooch on the Premier League squad, where Jozy Altidore spent a tumultuous season-and-a-half.
Sep 1, 2015, 11:45 AM EDT
The Hammers are splashing the cash on the final day of the window.
Sep 1, 2015, 11:20 AM EDT
Crystal Palace feels ready to move on from their longtime striker, with Connor Wickham having joined Palace this summer.
Sep 1, 2015, 11:02 AM EDT
That’s right, there’s a loophole to keep this madness going for an extra two hours. Think of it as extra-time.
Sep 1, 2015, 10:45 AM EDT
Potters striker interesting a host of PL clubs on Deadline Day.
Sep 1, 2015, 10:15 AM EDT
Senegal international arrives at the Bridge to bolster Chelsea’s backline.
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