Mar 17, 2014, 6:00 PM EST
Take three factoids, stare at them long enough, and you can talk yourself into a Galatasaray win on Tuesday. That very well might happen, but if it does, it won’t be because Aston Villa upset Chelsea on Saturday. It won’t be because the Blues were pulled back in Istanbul three weeks ago, nor will be because of the 12-match unbeaten run Gala brings into the team’s second leg. If Chelsea are bounced out of UEFA Champions League in the Round of 16, it will be because they gave an unexpectedly poor performance.
Which, of course, occasionally happens in soccer, and with Roberto Mancini’s team possessing talents like former Blue Didier Drogba and fellow Champions League-winner Wesley Sniejder, the Turkish champions are capable of taking advantage of any Chelsea mistakes. But under José Mourinho, mistakes at Stamford Bridge have almost been non-existent. Now in his second stint at the club, Mourinho has still yet to lose a game at home in the Premier League, and while that record didn’t prevent Switzerland’s FC Basel from claiming three points at the Bridge in group stage, it does speak to the rare feat Galatasaray hopes to accomplish on Tuesday.
“[W]e are here and we know it will be really difficult because Chelsea are one of the best teams in Europe,” Gala head coach Roberto Mancini said on Monday. “But in football you never say never. Anything can happen if you believe in yourself.”
That belief will have to find a way through the best defense in England. Chelsea is allowing only 10.3 shots per game, a rate that’s led to only 23 goals allowed through 30 rounds. The back four of Branislav Ivanovic, Gary Cahill, John Terry, and César Azpilicueta has become England’s best, one that’s maintained its numbers in a league where multiple clubs can match the firepower of Drogba, Sneijder, and Burak Yilmaz. If they can continue to make goalkeeper Petr Cech‘s job an easy one, Chelsea’s away goal will take them into the quarterfinals.
That scenario assumes Mourinho’s team can be kept off the scoresheet, something Gala’s unlikely to do. Saturday’s match in Birmingham represented the first time Chelsea had been shutout in five games – only the third time they’ve been blanked in 17. In the four games leading up to their visit to Villa Park, Chelsea had scored nine times. Only one team (West Ham) has kept Chelsea of the scoresheet at Stamford Bridge since Mourinho’s return.
Though they held Chelsea to one goal in the first leg, it’s unclear how Galatasaray can stop Eden Hazard if the Belgian is at his best. Combed with Willian and either Oscar or Andre Schürrle, the Blues attacker are poised to tempt the card-prone Felipe Melo in Gala’s defensive midfield. With Fernando Muslera alternating the spectacular with the inexplicable in goal, Galatasaray are unlikely to keep a clean sheet in London.
All of which is a long way to say the obvious: Chelsea are favorites on Tuesday. You really didn’t need 445 words to detail why. They are one of the most well-funded, talented teams in the world. The broad, reductive strokes we usually see describe a match between England and Turkey’s best happen to be accurate in this case. At home against one of Turkey’s best, Chelsea should be able to preserve the slight advantage they took out of Istanbul.
That the advantage is only slight — that Chelsea has left itself within reach of luck, misfortune, mistake, or variance — gives the Turkish champions reason to hope.
“If you look at the (first leg’s) result – 1-1 – and if you look at the game, one team was better in the first half, another was better in the second,” Mourinho explained. “It’s the kind of match that could go to the wire. I very much doubt the game will be decided by half-time.”
Jan 28, 2015, 3:01 PM EST
Huge trade now makes sense as Kljestan arrives in MLS.
Jan 28, 2015, 2:39 PM EST
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Jan 28, 2015, 2:00 PM EST
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Jan 28, 2015, 1:10 PM EST
Wenger get’s his man as Arsenal’s new center back has finally arrived.
Jan 28, 2015, 12:28 PM EST
Costa could miss Chelsea’s massive clash against Man City on Saturday. All the details, here.
Jan 28, 2015, 11:47 AM EST
Chelsea’s injury problems are piling up ahead of their huge tilt against City this Saturday.
Jan 28, 2015, 10:36 AM EST
After seeing red, Ronaldo will now miss Real’s next two games after ban for violent conduct.
Jan 28, 2015, 10:10 AM EST
Is Figo the man to take charge of world’s soccer’s governing body?
Jan 28, 2015, 9:25 AM EST
Super Bowl week brings out two NFL players for the latest podcast.
Jan 28, 2015, 9:01 AM EST
Michael Oliver, it’s over to you…
Jan 28, 2015, 7:55 AM EST
Bale tells Spanish radio station that he’s hanging around in the Spanish capital for some time to come.
Jan 27, 2015, 11:01 PM EST
Already it feels like Montreal has a major chance to be the winner in this deal, and that’s before they do anything with the allocation money.
Jan 27, 2015, 10:05 PM EST
It certainly wasn’t the wildest of days for the transfer rumor mill, but Manchester United, Southampton and Crystal Palace all said hello.
Jan 27, 2015, 9:12 PM EST
Surely Brendan Rodgers wouldn’t have been surprised to see Diego Costa’s temper flare up, but it didn’t make him any more understanding.
Jan 27, 2015, 8:32 PM EST
An ESPN FC report regarding Gedion Zelalem’s U.S. eligibility looks alarming, but is it a cause for concern?
Jan 27, 2015, 7:17 PM EST
He’s heinous. He’s prolific. He’s the Luis Suarez of 2015. And he’s making this season worth watching and hating. Unless you’re a Chelsea supporter.
Jan 27, 2015, 6:21 PM EST
Liverpool was the superior team in the first 45 minutes, but couldn’t find the finishing touch.
Jan 27, 2015, 5:17 PM EST
The Blues won 1-0 on the match and 2-1 on aggregate to move on the League Cup final versus Wednesday’s winner of Spurs and Sheffield United.
Jan 27, 2015, 4:12 PM EST
Six of eight knockout round slots are filled for the 2015 Africa Cup of Nations, and a couple well-known names are going home.
Jan 27, 2015, 3:00 PM EST
The Socceroos reached the AFC final for just the second-time in their history.
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