Mar 17, 2014, 6:00 PM EST
Take three factoids, stare at them long enough, and you can talk yourself into a Galatasaray win on Tuesday. That very well might happen, but if it does, it won’t be because Aston Villa upset Chelsea on Saturday. It won’t be because the Blues were pulled back in Istanbul three weeks ago, nor will be because of the 12-match unbeaten run Gala brings into the team’s second leg. If Chelsea are bounced out of UEFA Champions League in the Round of 16, it will be because they gave an unexpectedly poor performance.
Which, of course, occasionally happens in soccer, and with Roberto Mancini’s team possessing talents like former Blue Didier Drogba and fellow Champions League-winner Wesley Sniejder, the Turkish champions are capable of taking advantage of any Chelsea mistakes. But under José Mourinho, mistakes at Stamford Bridge have almost been non-existent. Now in his second stint at the club, Mourinho has still yet to lose a game at home in the Premier League, and while that record didn’t prevent Switzerland’s FC Basel from claiming three points at the Bridge in group stage, it does speak to the rare feat Galatasaray hopes to accomplish on Tuesday.
“[W]e are here and we know it will be really difficult because Chelsea are one of the best teams in Europe,” Gala head coach Roberto Mancini said on Monday. “But in football you never say never. Anything can happen if you believe in yourself.”
That belief will have to find a way through the best defense in England. Chelsea is allowing only 10.3 shots per game, a rate that’s led to only 23 goals allowed through 30 rounds. The back four of Branislav Ivanovic, Gary Cahill, John Terry, and César Azpilicueta has become England’s best, one that’s maintained its numbers in a league where multiple clubs can match the firepower of Drogba, Sneijder, and Burak Yilmaz. If they can continue to make goalkeeper Petr Cech‘s job an easy one, Chelsea’s away goal will take them into the quarterfinals.
That scenario assumes Mourinho’s team can be kept off the scoresheet, something Gala’s unlikely to do. Saturday’s match in Birmingham represented the first time Chelsea had been shutout in five games – only the third time they’ve been blanked in 17. In the four games leading up to their visit to Villa Park, Chelsea had scored nine times. Only one team (West Ham) has kept Chelsea of the scoresheet at Stamford Bridge since Mourinho’s return.
Though they held Chelsea to one goal in the first leg, it’s unclear how Galatasaray can stop Eden Hazard if the Belgian is at his best. Combed with Willian and either Oscar or Andre Schürrle, the Blues attacker are poised to tempt the card-prone Felipe Melo in Gala’s defensive midfield. With Fernando Muslera alternating the spectacular with the inexplicable in goal, Galatasaray are unlikely to keep a clean sheet in London.
All of which is a long way to say the obvious: Chelsea are favorites on Tuesday. You really didn’t need 445 words to detail why. They are one of the most well-funded, talented teams in the world. The broad, reductive strokes we usually see describe a match between England and Turkey’s best happen to be accurate in this case. At home against one of Turkey’s best, Chelsea should be able to preserve the slight advantage they took out of Istanbul.
That the advantage is only slight — that Chelsea has left itself within reach of luck, misfortune, mistake, or variance — gives the Turkish champions reason to hope.
“If you look at the (first leg’s) result – 1-1 – and if you look at the game, one team was better in the first half, another was better in the second,” Mourinho explained. “It’s the kind of match that could go to the wire. I very much doubt the game will be decided by half-time.”
Nov 28, 2014, 5:20 PM EST
Tottenham’s Europa League match against Partizan Belgrade was briefly suspended after multiple fans stormed the pitch.
Nov 28, 2014, 4:30 PM EST
Sunderland face a daunting task as they host a Chelsea side that hasn’t lost since a friendly on August 3rd.
Nov 28, 2014, 3:50 PM EST
Cameron talks turkey, playing at one of his favorite stadiums, sickness bugs and more in his first piece for PST.
Nov 28, 2014, 3:07 PM EST
LVG is bringing managerial swagger back to Old Trafford.
Nov 28, 2014, 2:13 PM EST
It’s no surprise that the Liverpool manager is feeling the heat after the Reds 12th place start.
Nov 28, 2014, 2:00 PM EST
Here’s how PST’s lead writer and editor sees things panning out this weekend.
Nov 28, 2014, 1:20 PM EST
It’s a vibrant and informative take on the big following in Seattle, one that even Sounders haters can respect for its size, dedication and creativity.
Nov 28, 2014, 12:35 PM EST
Top Four and Bottom Three match-ups take the battle for Premier League places to a different level this weekend.
Nov 28, 2014, 12:00 PM EST
Where and how to watch all the PL games during Week 13.
Nov 28, 2014, 11:52 AM EST
Hull City is looking for a historic win when they visit surging Manchester United on Saturday.
Nov 28, 2014, 11:01 AM EST
We pick three clubs in three countries that could be a landing spot for the out-of-favor Sunderland striker in the January transfer window.
Nov 28, 2014, 10:10 AM EST
The Baggies are coming off losses to Chelsea and Newcastle, and are four points back of eighth place Arsenal. The NBCSN match kicks at 745am ET.
Nov 28, 2014, 9:37 AM EST
Spain (4) and Germany (3) are the only nations with multiple members.
Nov 28, 2014, 8:35 AM EST
Manchester United’s legendary midfielder will stay in his assistant coach role for Ireland, spend more time with his family.
Nov 28, 2014, 7:58 AM EST
Vice Sports writer Kevin Koczwara has the story of Alston’s fight with chronic myelogenous leukemia.
New England Revolution, 90 minutes from MLS Cup, must simply avoid second-leg disaster vs. Red Bulls
Nov 27, 2014, 11:15 PM EST
It’s been a long time since the New England Revolution lost by mulitple goals, which the New York Red Bulls must achieve to reach MLS Cup 2014.
Nov 27, 2014, 9:26 PM EST
The big Europa League sides have begun to advance to the knockout round, with a few more very close to joining them.
Nov 27, 2014, 4:09 PM EST
Toffees seal spot in Europa League knockout rounds after terrific away day display.
Nov 27, 2014, 3:17 PM EST
Three FIFA ExCo members and German legend latest to be under the spotlight.
Nov 27, 2014, 2:05 PM EST
Brazilian legend hospitalized for second time this month.
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