Mar 17, 2014, 6:00 PM EDT
Take three factoids, stare at them long enough, and you can talk yourself into a Galatasaray win on Tuesday. That very well might happen, but if it does, it won’t be because Aston Villa upset Chelsea on Saturday. It won’t be because the Blues were pulled back in Istanbul three weeks ago, nor will be because of the 12-match unbeaten run Gala brings into the team’s second leg. If Chelsea are bounced out of UEFA Champions League in the Round of 16, it will be because they gave an unexpectedly poor performance.
Which, of course, occasionally happens in soccer, and with Roberto Mancini’s team possessing talents like former Blue Didier Drogba and fellow Champions League-winner Wesley Sniejder, the Turkish champions are capable of taking advantage of any Chelsea mistakes. But under José Mourinho, mistakes at Stamford Bridge have almost been non-existent. Now in his second stint at the club, Mourinho has still yet to lose a game at home in the Premier League, and while that record didn’t prevent Switzerland’s FC Basel from claiming three points at the Bridge in group stage, it does speak to the rare feat Galatasaray hopes to accomplish on Tuesday.
“[W]e are here and we know it will be really difficult because Chelsea are one of the best teams in Europe,” Gala head coach Roberto Mancini said on Monday. “But in football you never say never. Anything can happen if you believe in yourself.”
That belief will have to find a way through the best defense in England. Chelsea is allowing only 10.3 shots per game, a rate that’s led to only 23 goals allowed through 30 rounds. The back four of Branislav Ivanovic, Gary Cahill, John Terry, and César Azpilicueta has become England’s best, one that’s maintained its numbers in a league where multiple clubs can match the firepower of Drogba, Sneijder, and Burak Yilmaz. If they can continue to make goalkeeper Petr Cech‘s job an easy one, Chelsea’s away goal will take them into the quarterfinals.
That scenario assumes Mourinho’s team can be kept off the scoresheet, something Gala’s unlikely to do. Saturday’s match in Birmingham represented the first time Chelsea had been shutout in five games – only the third time they’ve been blanked in 17. In the four games leading up to their visit to Villa Park, Chelsea had scored nine times. Only one team (West Ham) has kept Chelsea of the scoresheet at Stamford Bridge since Mourinho’s return.
Though they held Chelsea to one goal in the first leg, it’s unclear how Galatasaray can stop Eden Hazard if the Belgian is at his best. Combed with Willian and either Oscar or Andre Schürrle, the Blues attacker are poised to tempt the card-prone Felipe Melo in Gala’s defensive midfield. With Fernando Muslera alternating the spectacular with the inexplicable in goal, Galatasaray are unlikely to keep a clean sheet in London.
All of which is a long way to say the obvious: Chelsea are favorites on Tuesday. You really didn’t need 445 words to detail why. They are one of the most well-funded, talented teams in the world. The broad, reductive strokes we usually see describe a match between England and Turkey’s best happen to be accurate in this case. At home against one of Turkey’s best, Chelsea should be able to preserve the slight advantage they took out of Istanbul.
That the advantage is only slight — that Chelsea has left itself within reach of luck, misfortune, mistake, or variance — gives the Turkish champions reason to hope.
“If you look at the (first leg’s) result – 1-1 – and if you look at the game, one team was better in the first half, another was better in the second,” Mourinho explained. “It’s the kind of match that could go to the wire. I very much doubt the game will be decided by half-time.”
Jul 4, 2015, 11:23 PM EDT
On a day where Laura Bassett showed great resolve, England won over many neutrals.
Jul 4, 2015, 10:30 PM EDT
The U.S. hasn’t given up a goal in 513 minutes at this World Cup, heading into the final against Japan.
Jul 4, 2015, 9:39 PM EDT
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Jul 4, 2015, 9:20 PM EDT
Eduaro Vargas and Paolo Guerrero beat all the big names to the 2015 Copa America top scorer’s award.
Jul 4, 2015, 8:00 PM EDT
The solidarity between Japan teammates — and between the two teams contesting the final — is remarkable.
Jul 4, 2015, 7:04 PM EDT
It took 99 years, but Chile are finally champions of South America after defeating Argentina in a penalty shootout.
Jul 4, 2015, 6:28 PM EDT
Steven Gerrard is winning points with LA Galaxy supporters before ever stepping on the field for his new club.
Jul 4, 2015, 6:07 PM EDT
Regulars in the latter stages of the Champions League, Bayern Munich and Atletico Madrid continue their summer spending sprees.
Jul 4, 2015, 3:30 PM EDT
We go once more at the 2015 Copa America. This time it’s Argentina vs. Chile for all the marbles.
Jul 4, 2015, 3:09 PM EDT
Carli Lloyd has taken rightfully taken over the spotlight, but Morgan Brian’s supporting role is no less important.
Jul 4, 2015, 1:18 PM EDT
Croatia’s most successful club has seen police throw its president and manager in prison.
Jul 4, 2015, 12:07 PM EDT
Popularity of women’s soccer has improved greatly the past few years, but there’s still much work to be done, and the US international isn’t happy with FIFAs parading of accomplishments.
Jul 4, 2015, 10:50 AM EDT
With the Dutchman set to turn 32 before the start of the league season, Manchester United may look to cash in on his star power after a down year.
Jul 4, 2015, 10:22 AM EDT
The German international didn’t get a first-team guarantee from Arsene Wenger, so he moved on.
Jul 4, 2015, 9:47 AM EDT
Stoke had an offer accepted by Inter, but two more clubs are reportedly in the mix for the Swiss international.
Jul 4, 2015, 8:31 AM EDT
Argentina looks to end a 22-year continental trophy drought against the hosts who have never won the Copa America.
Jul 4, 2015, 7:56 AM EDT
Your transfer activity on this July 4 morning.
Jul 4, 2015, 1:15 AM EDT
Tyrone Mears scored an absolute beauty late in the match to down a ten-man D.C. United.
Jul 4, 2015, 12:59 AM EDT
The English defender is still getting over the heartbreak of an own goal.
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