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Who has it easier in fight for 4th? Everton and Arsenal by the numbers

Apr 6, 2014, 9:38 PM EST

Thomas Vermaelen, Ross Barkley AP

Everton thoroughly humbled Arsenal on Sunday at Goodison Park, and the Toffees are clearly in the driver’s seat to move the Gunners from a traditional Top Four perch. Roberto Martinez‘s side has been oak-strong of late, and are one point back of the Gunners with a match-in-hand.

But Arsenal’s run-in could hardly be easier, while Everton faces a fortnight of very difficult matches with both Manchester clubs and Southampton on the slate.

Yet even Arsene Wenger is admitting that his club has messed up many lines in its familiar Champions League script, and is in a very troubling spot in its quest for Europe.

And, of course, he expressed it like a philosophy professor:

“The fight [for the top four] is very open and not only dependent on us,” Wenger added. “Everton are in a strong position. We have been confronted by that before and it is down to how we respond to such a disappointing performance.

“It is a massive worry to lose a game like that. We need to go back to basics.

“It is difficult to identify if it is fear. The heavy defeats away from home have taken some of our charisma away. Is that fear, is that belief, is that confidence? Maybe a bit all together.”

So, who really does have an easier road to the fourth spot? Let’s take a look.

Everton
April 12 at Sunderland
April 16 vs. Crystal Palace
April 20 vs. Manchester United
April 26 at Southampton
May 3 vs. Manchester City
May 11 at Hull City

Arsenal
April 15 vs. West Ham United
April 19 at Hull City
April 28 vs. Newcastle United
May 3 vs. West Bromwich Albion
May 11 at Norwich City

The Breakdown

Strength of schedule (points-per-match/season):
Arsenal opponents, 1.05
Everton opponents, 1.41

Strength of schedule (points-per-match/PL form):
Arsenal opponents, 1.00
Everton opponents, 1.44

Record vs. remaining opponents:
Arsenal, 4W-1D
Everton, 3W-2L-1D

The Verdict

What is already a baffling disintegration at the Emirates would be an absolutely massive choke job if Arsenal missed out on the Top Four. With an incredible amount of respect to what Martinez has done at Everton, Arsenal’s schedule is so much “easier” (Though the Gunners also have at least one FA Cup match to play as well).

Take the much talked-about “match-in-hand.” Presumably, Everton would have to be nearly perfect to not draw or lose one of that three-match run against United, Southampton and City. So, even considering the challenges in facing desperate teams staring down relegation, a Top Four club shouldn’t flinch.

So… will Arsenal flinch?

  1. jmillmac - Apr 7, 2014 at 3:10 AM

    Arsenal have done nothing BUT flinch for weeks now. If they play half as bad as they did today they could easily drop points in a couple of those matches.

    Oh, and Everton have already beaten United on the road. A Europa spot is an insult to Man U, so the only thing they’d have to play for in that game is Moyes’ pride, which I doubt very much they care about. Not a given, yet still a very possible 3 points. Southampton is tricky, but not unreasonable. So that just leaves the City match – that could decide both 4th place AND the title.

  2. agnesamondi - Apr 7, 2014 at 9:42 AM

    Reblogged this on Experiences.

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