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Major League Soccer Power Rankings – Week 7

Apr 23, 2014, 2:54 PM EDT

obafemi_martins_dan_kennedy AP

Two telling results at the top of the Eastern Conference shook up our Power Rankings, providing new context for early season results that, until this week, held huge sway in our evaluations. Yet after Toronto’s performance in Dallas and Columbus’s draw against D.C. United, it was easy to move beyond those teams’ early, impressive performances. Particularly with Seattle, a team both TFC and the Crew have beaten, having improved so much since those early trips to CenturyLink Field, the east’s two contenders took a fall, with a trio of Western Conference contenders sliding up the charts.

It’s a natural correction, one that illustrates the connections between all the results that go into this type of countdown. Toronto looks bad on the road at Dallas? That not only tells us something about Seattle, who beat Dallas the week before, but it also tells us Toronto’s win six weeks ago at Seattle may now be outdated. D.C. United almost gets a result out of Columbus? That tells us something about the Crew and also TFC’s win in Columbus. Suffice to say, it wasn’t a great weekend rankings-wise for Toronto or the Crew.

Those connections also hint at a problem Power Rankings have brought upon themselves. The process, already a curious one, is typically defined as moving teams up or down from the previous ranking (or, just the standings). Team wins? Move it up a little. Win big? Move it up a lot. These Power Rankings really aren’t that hard, ya’ know.

But a team’s spot in the league’s pecking order is about more than how it performed last weekend; more than whatever biases the author carried into the previous ranking. It’s about what the latest results tell us about our previous assumptions. It’s about context. It’s about continuously learning and letting that education come across in the order.

Power Rankings don’t need to be about anything, but if you’re going to do them, let them be about all the data points that inform a team’s current quality. They should be about what this week’s games tell the author about the whole picture, if they can be about anything at all.

But this isn’t another Power Rankings manifesto, though it does seem to devolving into that every week. This is about our thoughts on the league after seven weeks. Here’s who we see as Major League Soccer’s strongest , right now:

(MORE: Player of the Week | Team of the Week | Week 6 Power Rankings)

RANKING
Up/Down
source:  1 - Sporting Kansas City: Montréal is bad, but when you remember how the Impact performed in places like Dallas and Philadelphia, you get a greater appreciation for Sporting’s 4-0 win. Yes, you expect the league’s best team to clean against on the league’s worst. That Sporting did only confirms the fact that they deserve this list’s top spot. (3-1-2)

2 -
Real Salt Lake: RSL was the target of a frustrated, focused Portland team, yet they still managed to get full points. Thanks to Ned Grabavoy’s late winner, Real Salt Lake got back into the in column, maintaining the league’s only unbeaten record in the process.  (3-0-4)
source:  3 UP 2 Seattle Sounders: Seattle’s three-game road swing ends with seven points and the Clint Dempsey-Obafemi Martins partnership looking unstoppable. This clearly isn’t the same team that lost last month to Toronto and Columbus. The Sounders have “gelled.” They’ve improved. They’ve passed the teams that handed them their early losses. (4-2-1)

source:

4 UP 2 LA Galaxy: A come-from-ahead draw on the road isn’t something that usually results in a two-spot climb (especially at this place on the chart), but the Galaxy were the better team on Saturday. In light of the Eastern Conference correction and what we know from LA’s two meetings with RSL, this seems right. Though they’ll need Landon Donovan to get going to be firing on all cylinders, the Galaxy are getting close.  (2-1-2)
source:  5 UP 2 FC Dallas: Coming off their loss to Seattle, Saturday’s was a welcome rebound, particularly considering the quality of their opposition. Though Toronto’s conservative approach played into the result, it’s not difficult to imagine other teams being forced to settle for a draw. Thanks to Dallas’s continued set piece mastery, Óscar Pareja’s team stayed at the top of the Western Conference. (5-1-1)
source:  6 DOWN 3 Toronto FC: A one-goal loss at Dallas would normally be forgiven, but it’s become pretty obvious Toronto has a serious flaw – one that severely hurts the team by our ‘one game, neutral site’ standard. Ryan Nelsen is far too conservative, an approach that too often leaves his team within one goal of dropping points. Toronto has to at least try to win these games. Come the last 20 minutes, they’re just holding out, something that’s produced a the team’s first losing streak of the season. (3-3-0)
source:  7 DOWN 3 Columbus Crew: In weeks’ past, we’ve talked about apportioning blame and credit: decide what led to the result; hand out blame proportionately; don’t just blindly hurt one side and promote another. In Saturday’s 1-1 in Columbus, D.C. offered the same, limited, opportunistic approach we saw against New England and New York. The surprise was Columbus’s inability to overcome it.  (3-1-2)

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8 - Colorado Rapids: The game was boring, Colorado should have expected more, but there also wasn’t any reason to think our impression of the Rapids needs to chance. San Jose is a better team than people are giving them credit for, and while Pablo Mastroeni should have still found a way to get full points at home, the inability to do so is less reason for concern than a slight down day.(3-1-2)
source:  9 UP 1 Vancouver Whitecaps: The Whitecaps weren’t great on Saturday, arguably performing worse than they did in their previous week’s trip to Carson, Calif., yet Carl Robinson’s team still found a way to take a point. That, however, isn’t the reason why they’ve climbed this week. This ranking is more a result of Philadelphia’s fall than Vancouver improving.  (2-2-3)
source:  10 UP 1 New England Revolution: The Revolution failed to inspire at Chicago and shouldn’t have had their chance to steal it late. But that’s the current state of the Fire, and with Chris Tierney’s late chance from close range, the Revolution nearly got three points in Bridgeview. That they didn’t means Saturday’s game felt like a bad performance, but compared to the résumés of the teams below them, the Revolution deserve this spot.  (2-3-2)
source:  11 UP 1 Houston Dynamo: The Dynamo had a strong first half on Saturday, one that lends credence to the idea their New England performance was a fluke. In the second half, however, Houston gave up two good chances that should have cost them the game. They move up, but only because the Union fall. (2-3-1)
source:  12 DOWN 3 Philadelphia Union: The Union have the pieces to reclaim a  higher spot on this list, but until those pieces start performing like they did in the season’s first few weeks, Philly’s place is in the bottom half of this list. John Hackworth’s team was completely outplayed last Wednesday by New York – one of the league’s worst teams over the first month-and-a-half. (1-1-5)
source:  13 - San Jose Earthquakes: People are starting to take shots at San Jose, but those shots ignore a difficult opening schedule. This team is hard to watch and seems to have inspired some resentment from the rest of the league’s fans, but they’re not that bad, in a competitive sense. They’ve drawn three teams above them on this list. (0-2-3)
source:  14 - Chicago Fire: Same as last week: played better than their opponents; found a way to draw; just need to stop making defensive mistakes. This week, it was Patrick Nyarko taking down Kevin Alston in the box. Converting late penalties would help, too, but until Chicago actually starts playing bad (which, it’s not dong now), there’s no reason for alarm. (0-1-6)
source:  15 UP 1 Portland Timbers: Remember the standard here: Who wins a neutral site game tomorrow. After watching the Timbers at Rio Tinto on Saturday, can you honestly say they wouldn’t beat the teams below them on this list? They’d probably beat some of the teams above them, too, but given their inability to break into the win column, we’ll stay conservative. Portland is improving, though. (0-3-4)
source:  16 UP 1 D.C. United: Unbeaten in four, D.C. United have proven more dangerous (or, less self-destructive) than last year. Still, the team’s progress has been as much about opponents’ struggles as their own successes. The actual games show a team that’s still very limited and likely enjoying an uncharacteristic string of results. Now it’s up to Ben Olsen to turn this run into something sustainable. (2-2-2)
source:  17 UP 2 New York Red Bulls: It would have been nice for Philadelphia to come back strong on Saturday and show New York’s first win of the season wasn’t just them taking advantage of struggling team traveling (albeit at a short distance) on a quick turnaround. Regardless, the Red Bulls are still in the win column, quickly rebuking the notion they are “the worst team in Major League Soccer” (as we called them last week). (1-2-4)
source:  18 DOWN 3 Chivas USA: Chivas doesn’t seem this bad, but as teams like New York and D.C. make progress, the Goats are finding ways to lose at home. There’s a pretty big gap between them and 19th place Montréal, but Wilmer Cabrera’s team needs to recapture some of its early-season confidence if it’s to climb back up this chart. (1-3-3)
source:  19 DOWN 1 Montréal Impact: Not only is this team really bad, but they have no fight. The expressions, body language, results during that last 20 minutes in Kansas City gave the impression this is more than a slow start. The Impact have no identity, no direction, and seem without potential solutions. Maybe, having hit rock bottom, there’ll be an awakening in the squad, but if the teamy can’t show more this week against visiting Philadelphia, it’ll be time to consider a major shakeup. (0-4-3)

  1. chadmoon1 - Apr 23, 2014 at 3:55 PM

    I’ll tell you why these power rankings are dumb: FC Dallas, the team with the MOST POINTS in the league, are ranked 5th??!!??

    • bobinkc - Apr 23, 2014 at 7:53 PM

      Doesn’t necessarily mean they are the most consistent or that they have played the top competition in the league and won vs. playing the bottom to win. Remember, the best team tied them in an epic battle.

    • Richard Farley - Apr 24, 2014 at 4:23 PM

      I see what you’re saying, Chad, but Power Rankings just might not be for you. There’s an implicit assumption in the entire concept that the standings need to be augmented – an assumption which may not be true. If you think the standings are the be all, end all, then PR posts are pretty pointless.

      But also, what bobinkc said.

  2. talgrath - Apr 23, 2014 at 6:39 PM

    Frank Klopas may already be in the hot seat, Impact fans have to be yearning for the return of Schallibaum at this point. Chicago may be in trouble, they looked absolutely shell shocked after that missed penalty on Saturday; that can’t be good news if you’re a Fire fan.

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