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Relegation and La Liga: which teams could drop on Sunday?

May 18, 2014, 9:54 AM EST

Will Valladolid celebrate once more? AP

Anyone that loves a relegation dogfight should tune in to La Liga today. On the final match day of Spain’s top division, five different teams are battling to avoid the drop. Each of the four games involving the bottom six sides are set to kick off at 12 noon ET.

Let’s take a look at which clubs could spend next season in the second division. Remember, La Liga uses head-to-head rather than goal difference as a tie-breaker when teams are even on points…which makes this a bit hairy:

Real Betis (20th)
It’s over for the Andalusian side, who, with just 25 points and a -41 goal difference, lost hope some weeks ago. Betis serve as perhaps another warning for smaller clubs entering Europa League that maybe, just maybe, that European experience isn’t worth the fight. Still, Betis won’t take it easy on Osasuna – even with nothing to play for, they beat 19th placed Valladolid last week.

Real Valladolid (19th)
First, in order to save themselves, Valladolid must beat Granada. If that happens, they’ll have 39 points. If Osasuna lose to Betis, Valladolid are safe. If Osasuna win, that could create a potential tie-breaker with Valladolid, Osasuna, Almeria and Getafe all on 39 points. The permutations of that outcome could give anyone a headache. If it’s just Osasuna and Valladolid that finish with 39, however, Valladolid will be relegated, as Osasuna have the better head-to-head.
In summary: if you’re a Valladolid fan, root for Betis and Vallecano – that should put Valladolid into safety.

Osasuna (18th)
A win puts Osasuna on 39 points. That’s a must. But the fact that Granada and Valladolid play each other doesn’t do Osasuna any favors. If Granada, Getafe and Almeria all win, Osasuna are relegated. If there’s another tie at 39 points, again, we’ve got another headache situation. But Osasuna will be cheering on Valladolid, as if they’re even on points, Osasuna stay safe.

Granada (17th)
Beating Valladolid makes Granada safe, full stop. If Granada lose, they’re down, full stop. If the match finishes in a draw, and Osasuna win, it gets more complicated. If both Getafe and Almeria lose, then Granada are down.

Getafe (16th)
Getafe are three points above the drop, but that doesn’t make them safe. Obviously, if get even a point at Rayo, they’re good – it’s La Liga for them next season. But if, despite having nothing to play for, Rayo decide to beat up on Getafe, they could be in danger. If the azulones lose, Osasuna wins and Valldolid and Granada ends in a tie, Getafe are down.

Almeria (15th)
Good news for Almeria – Athletic Bilbao are safe in the final Champions League place, and have no reason to fight for all three points. A draw is enough to keep Almeria safe. In fact, Almeria are almost certain to remain in La Liga. Only if Granada win, Getafe don’t lose and Osasuna win is there a chance that Almeria go down.

PS – if you’re fluent in Spanish, give this AS article a glance. You’ll see just how complicated tonight’s match outcomes might be.

Fixtures

Almeria vs. Athletic Bilbao
Osasuna vs. Real Betis
Rayo Vallecano vs. Getafe
Real Valladolid vs. Granada

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