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Odds say U.S. should progress despite late draw with Portugal

Jun 23, 2014, 10:52 AM EDT

Brazil Soccer WCup US Portugal AP

Numbers are just numbers and even advanced statisticians know that projections are just likelihood. They can’t account for every single mishap or moment of brilliance — find me the Opta projection for Netherlands 5, Spain 1 — but they give a nice indication of what could go down in any given event.

Earlier, our Richard Farley provided a brilliant and extensive breakdown of each scenario that could come from Group G’s final act on Thursday, so we know everything that can happen.

But what do the betting services, advanced stats and others say?

FiveThirtyEight.com, the respected Nate Silver site, says the USMNT has a 76 percent of advancement… and uses further reasoning to say that number may be low. Of course, it must be noted that the same site gave the US a mere 36 percent chance of advancing from Group G before the tournament started.

So how about the bettors? Well, consider this Tweet:

As for the others, I’ll go with the whole gut instinct thing. Walking away from the match with my friends, I kept saying I’d be surprised if the US doesn’t go through. Maybe this is a by-product of me being the only PST writer to predict a US advancement from Group G (back-pat), but my gut says yes.

  1. 950003cups - Jun 23, 2014 at 5:06 PM

    Let’s just give those krauts a traditional yankee beatdown!

  2. matt14gg - Jun 23, 2014 at 5:08 PM

    I’ve never been a soccer fan, but I am now on board. And I have a favorite player. Jermaine Jones is everything I like in an athlete. That dude is fearless. Some people shrink from the moment (add the obvious names here) and some rise to the occasion. Jones and Dempsey are (to me) the only two guys on the US side who are playing completely free and without fear (even Tim Howard’s looked shaky). If all is on the line on Thursday I want the ball on Jones’ or Dempsey’s foot if they need a goal.

  3. darksidecowboy - Jun 23, 2014 at 5:57 PM

    Bradley needs to bring it come Thursday, GO USA

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